In a week the US will have a new president and there is no need to clarify what this will mean for Americans and the world. Fortune tellers, octopuses, coins, whirligigs, there are countless instruments that are used to predict who will occupy the White House starting next January 20. The two main social mechanisms to try to guess if we will have – for the first time – a “Mrs. President” or a “Mr. President”, are the polls and the results of the betting houses. Starting today and twice a day, Ámbito.com will publish the main results – without adding any opinion – so that readers are aware of the most probable results and can thus form their decisions with the best information.
The surveys
The political failure of individual pollsters is proverbial; However, in the aggregate the surveys have been much more accurate. This does not mean that survey aggregators are free of bias (via the weight they give to different results and consultants).
In 2002, Real Clear Politics became the first North American poll aggregator, being recognized based on its results for the 2004 election, and in 2008 it was followed by FiveThirtyEight, which since last year has been – through abcNews – under the control of “ The Walt Disney Co.”
Based on its historical predictions, we could say that RCP has presented a bias towards the center right (Republicans) and 5.38 towards the center left (Democrats).
One point to keep in mind is that in the US there is no “election ban”, so we will continue to provide this information until the moment of the elections.
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The Bets
Given the failure of the pollsters, at the beginning of the century the academic world began to see how the “wisdom of the masses”, collected by betting houses, provided better results than traditional pollsters, especially when the elections were very close. Below, the latest figures from the betting houses according to RCP.
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What happened from yesterday to night
Since last night, bettors continued betting on Trump, raising their odds from 6.28% to 64% (yesterday morning 61.8%) while moving away from Harris who fell from 36% to 35.1% (yesterday morning 36.9 %)
According to 5.38, the polls still gave Harris the winner 48.1% and although they reduced Trump’s chance to 46.7% from 46.8% last night, this is higher than the 46.6% of 24 hours ago.
According to RCP, since the last report, both candidates reduced their chances by one tenth, maintaining the same difference, Trump continued to lead with 48.4% compared to 48% for Harris. Compared to yesterday morning this is +2.2 points for the Republican and -1.8 for the Democrat.
See you in the afternoon
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
