In a week the US will have a new president and there is no need to clarify what this will mean for Americans and the world. Fortune tellers, octopuses, coins, whirligigs, there are countless instruments that are used to predict who will occupy the White House starting next January 20.
The two main social mechanisms to try to guess if we will have – for the first time – a “Mrs. President” or a “Mr. President”, are the polls and the results of the betting houses. Starting today and twice a day, Ámbito will publish the main results – without adding any opinions – so that readers are aware of the most probable results and can thus form their decisions with the best information.
The surveys
The political failure of individual pollsters is proverbial; However, in the aggregate the surveys have been much more accurate. This does not mean that survey aggregators are free of bias (via the weight they give to different results and consultants).
In 2002 Real Clear Politics became the first North American poll aggregator, being recognized based on its results for the 2004 election and in 2008 it was followed by FiveThirtyEight, which since last year is – through abcNews – under the control of “The Walt Disney Co.”
Based on their historical predictions we could say that RCP has presented a bias towards the center right (Republicans) and 5.38 towards the center left (Democrats).
One point to keep in mind is that in the In the US there is no “electoral ban”, Therefore, we will continue to provide this information until the moment of the elections.
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The Bets
Given the failure of the pollsters, at the beginning of the century the academic world began to see how the “wisdom of the masses”, that the betting houses collected, provided better results than traditional pollsters, especially when the elections were very close. Below, the latest figures from the betting houses according to RCP.
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The models
In addition to surveys and bets, there are countless institutions that have developed their own models, collecting data and probabilistic algorithms, seeking to predict who will be the next North American president.
One of the best known is the one published by the people of “The Economist”, a medium that is difficult to define as related to Donald Trump.
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What happened since yesterday afternoon
Although he remains by far the favorite, since yesterday afternoon’s comment, bettors’ enthusiasm for Donald Trump continued to wane and bets in favor of Kamala Harris increased. Thus the luck in favor of the Republican was reduced to 62.8% (64% yesterday morning) and that of the Democrat grew to 36% (from 35.1%).
On the front of the polls since yesterday morning the people of RCP did not modify their aggregate (48.4% for Trump, 48% for Harris), while those of “5.38” maintained the figures of 24 hours ago (48.1% for her -which adds a tenth compared to yesterday afternoon-, 46.7% for him).
Although, as the day before, the people at The Economist continue to assign equal chances of winning to the two candidates, it is the first time since October 18 that they have seen Harris winning more voters than Trump.
See you this afternoon.
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
