in a week USA will have a new president and there is no need to clarify what this will mean for Americans and the world. Fortune tellers, octopuses, coins, whirligigs, there are countless instruments that are used to predict who will occupy the White House starting next January 20.
The two main social mechanisms to try to guess if we will have – for the first time – a “Mrs. President” or a “Mr. President”, are the polls and the results of the betting houses. Starting today and twice a day, Ámbito.com will publish the main results – without adding any opinion – so that readers are aware of the most probable results and can thus form their decisions with the best information.
The surveys
The political failure of individual pollsters is proverbial; However, in the aggregate the surveys have been much more accurate. This does not mean that survey aggregators are free of bias (via the weight they give to different results and consultants).
In 2002, Real Clear Politics became the first North American poll aggregator, being recognized based on its results for the 2004 election, and in 2008 it was followed by FiveThirtyEight, which since last year has been – through abcNews – under the control of “ The Walt Disney Co.”
Based on its historical predictions, we could say that RCP has presented a bias towards the center right (Republicans) and 5.38 towards the center left (Democrats).
One point to keep in mind is that in the US there is no “election ban”, so we will continue to provide this information until the moment of the elections.
Surveys 5.38 1 11 T.JPG
The Bets
Given the failure of the pollsters, at the beginning of the century the academic world began to see how the “wisdom of the masses”, collected by betting houses, provided better results than traditional pollsters, especially when the elections were very close. Below, the latest figures from the betting houses according to RCP.
Bets 1 11 T.JPG
Bets Chart 1 11 T.JPG
What happened since the morning
While the bettors decided to moderate the morning movement, increasing Donald Trump’s chance by two tenths (to 60.8%), reducing Kamala Harris’ chance by one tenth (to 38%) and the RCP people did not modify the result of their aggregate of surveys, maintaining 48.4% in favor of the Republican and 48.1% for the Democracy, those of “5.38” assigned one tenth more to Harris (48%) without changing the 46.8% they gave to Trump.
See you tomorrow morning
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
