In a week the US will have a new president and there is no need to clarify what this will mean for Americans and the world. Fortune tellers, octopuses, coins, whirligigs, there are countless instruments that are used to predict who will occupy the White House starting next January 20.
The two main social mechanisms to try to guess if we will have – for the first time – a “Mrs. President” or a “Mr. President”, are the polls and the results of the betting houses. Starting today and twice a day, Ámbito.com will publish the main results – without adding any opinion – so that readers are aware of the most probable results and can thus form their decisions with the best information.
The surveys
The political failure of individual pollsters is proverbial; However, in the aggregate the surveys have been much more accurate. This does not mean that survey aggregators are free of bias (via the weight they give to different results and consultants).
In 2002, Real Clear Politics became the first North American poll aggregator, being recognized based on its results for the 2004 election, and in 2008 it was followed by FiveThirtyEight, which since last year has been – through abcNews – under the control of “ The Walt Disney Co.”
Based on its historical predictions, we could say that RCP has presented a bias towards the center right (Republicans) and 5.38 towards the center left (Democrats).
One point to keep in mind is that in the US there is no “election ban”, so we will continue to provide this information until the moment of the elections.
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The Bets
Given the failure of the pollsters, at the beginning of the century the academic world began to see how the “wisdom of the masses”, collected by betting houses, provided better results than traditional pollsters, especially when the elections were very close. Below, the latest figures from the betting houses according to RCP.
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The models
In addition to surveys and bets, there are countless institutions that have developed their own models, collecting countless data and probabilistic algorithms, seeking to predict who will be the next North American president.
One of the best known is the one published by the people of “The Economist”, a medium that is difficult to define as related to Donald Trump.
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What happened since yesterday
Since yesterday afternoon’s comment, there has been a turnaround among bettors on Kamala Harris as the next North American president, increasing the implied chance by 2.6 percentage points to 40.7%. In the opposite direction, Donald Trump’s chances fell 2.4 points to 58.2%.
The people of Real Clear Politics continue to maintain the same results in their accumulated surveys, 48.4% for the Republican and 48.1 for the Democrat, while those of “5.38”, without modifying his number, 46.8%, rose by one tenth. of it to 48%.
According to The Economist’s model, Kamala’s chance rose to the highest since October 18, 52% compared to Trump’s 48%, so it would be an improvement in the state of Pennsylvania.
See you in the afternoon
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
