Elections in the United States 2024: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris and the last-minute move that Javier Milei leveraged

Elections in the United States 2024: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris and the last-minute move that Javier Milei leveraged

Key day in USA. Also in Argentina. The choice for the presidency of the northern country promises to raise the pulse in vernacular politics.

It is inferred, because despite some indicators the financial front – and the accumulation of reserves – continues to appear vulnerable, that a victory for former President Donald Trump could, eventually, offer some additional support to the government of Javier Milei.

An idea prevails on which any analysis must be based: in the dynamics of the commercial and geostrategic confrontation between the United States and China, Argentina only matters – for both Democrats and Republicans – within that equation. What decisions of the future government of the United States would facilitate the entry of capital from that country into strategic sectors of ours? What policies would inhibit China’s entry into those same vernacular sectors? To what extent would a country with financial problems with the IMF be forced to resort to Chinese capital to increase its hard currency reserves? These questions guide the possible analyses.

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Milei and her geopolitical alignment with Trump.

The fight for the role model: dark meeting between Trump and Milei

It is known that President Milei looks in the mirror that Donald Trump represents. And that, conversely, the American businessman usually mentions the Argentine as the architect of an unprecedented experiment of which the Argentines are hostages. It must be remembered that on February 24, both politicians met in person, in the dark and for a few minutes, at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington.

Of course, there are important contrasts between Trump’s proposals and Milei’s exercise of power linked to production policies, care for the employment market, taxes, tariffs, import opening, the 2030 agenda, etc. From which it follows that the Trump-Milei relationship is a political but not programmatic affiliation, less interested in ideas, more in global dynamics.

Trump for the IMF, Werthein for Kamala Harris

Finally, the idea remains that a possible decision by Trump could tip the balance when it comes to the US Treasury Department being able to push the staff and board of the IMF to support Argentina with “new money” in a new agreement. It is known that other major shareholders of the IMF, such as Germany or Japan, often refer to Argentina as “a problem that the United States must solve.”

But what if Kamala Harris, the Democratic leader and current vice president, wins? For this reason, to avoid a linear reading, the Government accelerated the swearing-in of the new Chancellor, Gerardo Werthein. It was the former ambassador to the United States who, on repeated occasions, enabled the resolution of relevant issues with the US government.

Werthein has access to the Democratic government, but also with the Republicans. His contacts quietly reach key places in the Treasury department but also in the State. In fact, the president has resorted to his services numerous times in the past, as if he were a chancellor in the shadows.

Valdés’ management and the arrival of Cubeddu

One of those events occurred just a few weeks ago. President Milei had already spoken out against the director of the Western Hemisphere of the IMF, Rodrigo Valdés, so, some sources maintain, the president managed, with Werthein, a move in Joe Biden’s National Security Council, and managed to promote an informal consultation with the Treasury Secretariat, which generally remains aligned with the IMF’s policy decisions.

It was this consultation, and the management of the now chancellor, that ended up assigning specific weight to Milei’s request in the West Wing of the White House. Thus, the Argentine government managed to get Valdés to completely delegate the negotiations of the program to Luis Cubeddu, the deputy director of the Western Hemisphere department, and Ashvin Ahuja, the head of the Argentine mission. Decisive hours.

Source: Ambito

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