The Pensar Foundation report ensures that, at least for the moment, society “banks” the government. “The president’s management and image maintain his approval” and “Argentines do not regret their vote.” Furthermore, they highlight that hope “is an accompanying feeling.”
The Pensar Foundation highlighted the fall in inflation and the fiscal surplus
Among the highlights at an economic level, the think tank highlights the low inflation and the zero deficit “more consolidated”. The monetary front, which represented a significant challenge for the libertarian management, is going “better than expected”, while activity, consumption, income and employment “are recovering”, but the latter at a slower pace.
The PRO foundation report highlights that The economic policies applied to reduce inflation “are on the right track”. “September was the lowest in 34 months, since November 2021. It is the first time it has broken the 4.0% floor since February 2022. Core inflation registered an increase of 3.3%, the first drop since May . Private consultants estimate that October inflation will pierce 3%“, they advance.
They consider the same about the fiscal policy. “Argentina is the only country with fiscal surplus in South America, according to the IMF”, they point out and indicate that the path is the correct one. Currently, the financial fiscal result shows a 0.4% surplus according to Economy figures. Primary spending between January and September collapsed 29%.
Regarding the evolution of the dollar, The foundation highlights that the gap is “slowly improving” and “hit a minimum since April 2024.” However, they clarify that the exchange rate in December 2023 at today’s prices “is equivalent to $1,746” and the Real Exchange Rate of Banco Nación fell 29%. From the business sector they continue with their demand for the elimination of the stocks, in agreement with economists from the City.
From Pensar they focus on two other factors. On the one hand, the variation of the gross debt, that between January and September grew US$89,395 million. On the other hand, the level of net reserves, that despite the devaluation and the income of foreign currency from the countryside They barely grew by US$4,882 million.
The survey also analyzes the salary evolution in the ten months of Milei’s government. In that sense, they highlight that the recovery “is sustained” given that in the last five months they showed signs of growth and in the accumulated annual “they continue to show positive signs.” However, They are still below December 2023: “They increased by 201% against a price increase of 238%”. The minimum wage fell 27%, the average income is -11%, retirements with bonuses are down 6%. It is worth highlighting the 60% jump in the Universal Child Allowance.
As for the employment, from Pensar they assure that for the first time the fall stopped and in two months The number of companies that plan to hire has doubled. Despite this, The figures reflect that the jobs lost in the year are far from being recovered.
Economic activity and the forecast for 2025
Looking ahead to next year they affirm that there is “a light at the end of the tunnel” and cite a IMF report that predicts a growth of the Argentine economy of 5% in 2025. If confirmed, it would be the largest increase in all of America.
Among the reasons that would boost the economy, Pensar highlights the production of oil which was “a record in the last decade and Argentina exported oil for more than US$4 billion so far in 2024.” Furthermore, exports of meat vaccine “reached the highest figure in the last 57 years.”
Regarding the economic activity In general, they highlight that for the second consecutive month it registered an increase. The sectors that are driving the recovery the most are Steel (7%), Construction (6%), Commerce (2%), Oil (2%), Industry (2%), Finance (2%), Hotels (2%) and Mining (1%).
He consumption The month of October barely recovered. Sales in retail stores increased 2.9% compared to 2023 year-on-year. “It is the first positive year-on-year variation this year,” Pensar points out. The sale of meat was at the lowest level in 26 years (fell 17%), the same as yerba mate (accumulating a 10% drop).
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In the document, the foundation presents the National Development Index (NDI)a monthly monitoring indicator in which they weigh “a series of 50 indicators that together represent the degree of development and progress of Argentina.” The development scale goes from 0 to 10 with different levels: 0.0 to 2.0 is “very low”, 2.0 to 4.0 is “low”, from 4.0 to 6.0 is “medium” and from 6.0 to 10.0 is considered “high. Pensar’s IDN for October was 3.3.
Compared to September, the indicator shows improvement. According to the analysis proposed by the foundation, among the positive weights that drove the IDN upward are the sustained fall in inflation and country risk, the increase in real wages for 5 consecutive months and the drop in intentional homicides. The stagnation in employment, the fall in reserves and the increase in povertyalthough they do not show a drop compared to last month but rather a continuity.
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Milei and Argentine society: “Solid approval”
Regarding the government’s relationship with society, the report assures that there is “solid approval” despite the fact that Milei is carrying out “the largest adjustment in the history of the country. This is due, according to Pensar, to the fact that it is “materializing campaign promises, such as lowering inflation and reducing state spending.” If the image of the government was 45% positive during January, by October it rose to 49%. Furthermore, only 1 in 10 Argentines regret their vote, a figure similar to that registered in the first month of the year.
The approval of President Milei remains at 50% (just two points below January), while hope is the feeling that most represents the citizens consulted. Regarding the expectation for a better future, 44% assure that “the initial sacrifice will be rewarded at the end of the road, which reflects a drop of five points compared to January.
Throughout the year, the main concern of Argentines changed from inflation to other factors. In October, unemployment led the ranking. “As the government demonstrated results in lowering the inflation, the Concern about unemployment began to increase in a context of general economic recession“, they explain in the report. Inflation went from 27% in January to 9% in October, due to the fall in the CPI, while the fear of losing employment rose from 5% to 12%.
Another relevant factor in the analysis proposed by the foundation has to do with responsibility for the current crisis. “11 months into Milei’s presidency, almost half of Argentines attribute responsibility for the country’s economic crisis to the policies of the last Kirchener government. This gap is logically becoming smaller, although the management remains primarily responsible. of Fernández, CFK and Massa,” they say.
International level: Mercosur-European Union agreement and trade balance
At the international level, the Pensar Foundation highlights the importance of finalizing the agreement between Mercosur and the European Union, still on standby due to differences in the old continent bloc. “The Mercosur-EU agreement is key to attracting investments, since the EU is the largest global investor. Experiences in other countries show how these agreements multiply the arrival of foreign capital and prepare Argentina to sign future agreements,” they say.
They clarify that it is not just about “increasing exports” but that it is “an institutional anchor” given that it “offers clear and stable rules, necessary for economic stability.” In addition, it aligns the country “with standards that transcend governments, generating confidence and predictability for those who produce and export.”
Its implementation would allow “productive modernization with access to cheaper inputs and technology” and would increase added value. In addition, it would give way to a “gradual reconversion, protecting sensitive sectors and marking a path of sustained and safe integration for the next 20 years.”
The report highlights those sectors that “push the recovery” from exports. Fishing leads with 17%, agriculture follows with 5%, mining explains 6% while energy accounts for 2%. In September, exports grew 21%. In addition, they highlight the role of money laundering to boost activity due to the income of US$18,000 million, the “Open Skies” policy for the airline sector and assure that thanks to the Investment Regime (RIGI) foreign currency income is projected for projects for US$12,654 million.
Relationship with Congress and the PRO’s support for key laws for Milei
The link between the government and the Congress has been at least controversial since the arrival of Milei to the Pink House. Disqualifications of deputies and senators reigned in the last ten months. The policy of vetoing laws passed without support from the Executive became a norm.
Despite the difficult relationship with the Legislative Palace, Milei managed to pass a series of key laws. There, the PRO played an important role. From Pensar they highlight the parliamentary work of Macri’s party for the sanction of the Bases law, the Fiscal Package and the vetoes of the Retirement Mobility and University Financing laws, as well as the approval of the Single Ballot.
In addition, they highlight the joint work to advance projects such as Essential Education (with half a sanction in Deputies) and the Privatization of Argentine Airlines (being discussed in commission), both promoted by the PRO. The same occurs in the case of Clean Record, Foreign Argentine Vote, Union Democratization and Anti-Blockade Law.
About the situation of the universities, the think tank PRO assures that they are in favor of those that are publicly managed continuing along that path. “It is not in discussion”they claim. “But that is not the same as saying yes at any cost,” they add.
The report also points against those sectors that “put spokes in the wheel” and identify in Congress the Kirchnerism and allies for the approval of the Retirement and University Lawand the rejection of DNU 70/23 of Milei in the Senate.
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
