Deputies define Budget 2025 in the midst of the truce with governors

Deputies define Budget 2025 in the midst of the truce with governors

November 13, 2024 – 1:24 p.m.

The Budget and Finance Commission of the Chamber of Deputies returns to debate tomorrow after 15 days of paralysis. The deadline to issue an opinion has expired.

Mariano Fuchila

After two weeks of paralysis, the commission Budget and Treasury of the Chamber of Deputies will meet again this Thursday at 11 to define whether or not there will be an opinion on the 2025 Budget before the end of the regular period of sessions on November 30. The project is the cornerstone of the political truce that Javier Milei managed to impose in Congress against the claim of the governors of items and funds from the co-participation for their provinces.

Next year there will also be legislative elections in the provinces and the governors will seek to revalidate their management in a scenario of financial asphyxiation, a drop in revenue due to the recession and the armed supporters of La Libertad Avanza in each of their districts at the hands of Karina Milei. In this context, the debate on the 2025 Budget project, where the State’s spending and income scheme is defined, anesthetized the opposition in Congress.

Pressure on governors

The pressure from the Casa Rosada on the provinces caused the failure of the special session that was called yesterday in Deputies to limit the validity of the DNU, the main instrument of government of Javier Milei before the legislative minority that he holds in both Chambers. The Executive Branch packed up the governors. First he received the provincial leaders of the PRO and allies. Then it was the turn of the radicals. Everyone displayed their menu of complaints. Focusing on stopping public works, the governors also proposed the payment of co-participation debts, the cutting of discretionary transfers and the unpaid balances of non-transferred pension funds.

While the National Executive Branch delays the ruling on the 2025 Budget, it gains political ground to neutralize the opposition in Congress. The first to abide by the truce was Mauricio Macri’s PRO. At the meeting of the PRO executive board this Monday were the head of the Buenos Aires government, Jorge Macri, the governor of Chubut, Ignacio Torres, and the governor of Entre Ríos -via zoom-, Rogelio Frigerio. Added to the need for funds from the provinces are the negotiations for an incipient joint electoral set-up between La Libertad Avanza and the PRO. A macro agreement that the former president aspires to cover the definition of candidacies both in the province of Buenos Aires and in the Federal Capital.

Deputies, to the limit

The governors of the UCR such as Alfredo Cornejo (Mendoza), Gustavo Valdes (Corrientes), Leandro Zdero (Chaco) and Maximiliano Pullaro (Santa Fe) are in the same situation and hostage to the definition of the 2025 Budget remains open with a focus on the definition of public works schedules in the provinces. According to the regulations of the Chamber of Deputies, the commissions have until the 20th of this month to rule, 10 days before the end of the ordinary sessions. After the 30th, the President should convene extraordinary sessions by decree.

If there is no agreement on the Budget, the National Executive Branch could use the items at its discretion, an even more complicated scenario for the provinces. The Government foresees an increase in inflation of 18.3% by 2025. According to the project, the value of the official dollar would be $1,207 by the end of next year. According to official forecasts, GDP will fall by 3.8% in 2024, but will recover by 5% in 2025. A surplus is also expected in the commercial basket and an increase in collection.

Source: Ambito

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