For him Minister Luis Caputoa part of this equation could already be seen: the first signs, lTrump’s praise for Milei and the license – not denied – to build speculation by the Government with potential help from the United States on the IMF board for a new disbursement, had a full impact on the price of bonds and the drop in country risk.
If you think about it, the Government feeds on speculation: It needs to reach the area of 600 country risk points to begin refinancing the debt that matures in the coming months.
The prophecy of the rating agencies: everyone believes in the “Trumpist trade”
They speculate in the corridors of the Treasury that, without a flow of maturities that seems unpayable or not very refinablethe financial front could begin to generate enough space to remove a minor part of the scaffolding of the exchange rate and this could enable new increases in the notes of the risk rating agencies, which would impact the price of the bonds, the reduction of the risk country, etc.
Some of this could be seen last week when the rating agency Fitch Ratings announced that it had decided to raise Argentina’s rating as an issuer of long-term foreign currency debt (IDR), from CC to CCC. Instead, just three weeks ago, the agency Moody’s decided to maintain the country’s rating with the “CA” note, the same one it has had since 2019.which on the Moody’s scale represents the penultimate step in the risk assessment for the economies under evaluation. Moodys’ question, which Fitch also asks, is about the payment capacity of sovereign bonds. Will Trump play?
Of course the procession goes inside. There are many potential challenges that “Uncle Trump” brings along with his bag of promises and the particular way of dividing the world between conservatives and traitors. And Milei knows it.
For example, It does not escape the Argentine government that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has indicated in recent days that the possibility of Trump raising tariffs goes against the anti-inflationary policy that the Federal Reserve itself has implemented.. In fact, Trump’s promises find Yellen against him, which raises an urgent question.
Milei Trump in florfida.jpg
Related to the latter, and in what is a wake-up call for “libertarian wet dreams”, last week closed with losses for the main market indices, reflecting the caution of investors after the presidential election and the messages of the Federal Reserve regarding its monetary policy.
“After recent interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy remains in the spotlight. Jerome Powell has taken a more conservative approach by stating that there were no signs of urgency to reduce rates, a change in speech reflects growing concerns about the impact of possible pro-growth and tax reduction policies that could lead to a greater fiscal deficit for the president-elect,” says a report by the consulting firm Antuara, directed by Gabriel Berutti.
Xi Jinping must be seen: Donald Trump’s signal
President Javier Milei will meet tomorrow, for the first time, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, within the framework of the G20 Leaders Summit that will take place in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The meeting was confirmed at Scope by a source close to the Argentine delegation.
Milei has just met in Argentina with Emanuel Macron, the French president and will have another bilateral meeting with Georgia Meloni, the Italian chancellor. However, in the Palacio de Hacienda they think green.
The President has just made several gestures with China, a turn in events. Just a few weeks ago, on a Sunday, Milei told Susana Giménez that “China is a very interesting trading partner because they don’t demand anything. The only thing they ask is that they not be bothered”.
Twelve months earlier, a Milei in the middle of the campaign pointed out: “Not only am I not going to do business with China. I am not going to do business with any communist. I am a defender of freedom, peace and democracy. The Chinese do not go there, Putin It doesn’t go in there.”
chinese economy
Depositphotos
Argentina, a “United States problem” in the eyes of Japan and Germany in the IMF
China is a relevant trading partner of Argentina and the conditions of swaps and other commercial and financial agreements sustain the link between both nations. This is viewed by Washington with concern. Is Donald Trump interested in a virtual withdrawal of China from the BCRA reserves?
The cancellation of the swap with China would imply a drop in the BCRA’s net international reserves that would have to be compensated by other capital. As far as he could know Scopethis is also part of the conversations between the Argentine government and the US administration.
According to what the Treasury says, there are some signs of the newly elected government that could weigh with interest a virtual proposal to replace the “Chinese shareholder” of the BCRA. It should be remembered that the renewal of the swap during 2024 with China had the condition that US$5 billion be canceled in 2026 without renewal, a challenge for the Government. A gesture from Donald Trump is also being sought there.
Behind the United States, the largest shareholders in the IMF are Japan and Germany. Argentine negotiators believe that if they can get the United States to trust a new proposal before the organization, then there is a high probability that the rest of the IMF Board will side with the US administration.
The paradox lies, in part, in that for this to happen, it must first be the IMF staff that approves this negotiation. A senior source from the United States Treasury Secretary tells Ámbito: “The IMF usually tells us that in the organization’s board of directors, Japan and Germany usually say that Argentina is a problem for the United States.”
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
