Bye fixed term: the market analyzes whether it is convenient to invest in instruments in pesos or dollars

In the midst of an appreciation of the peso and with a possible reduction of the “crawling peg”, but in a context of fiscal surplus, accumulation of reserves and stable dollar, different analysts in the city wonder what will happen to instruments in pesos, which include the rates of CER bonds and the stock rally S&P Mervalin contrast to sovereign debt in dollars.

From CEPEC, they maintain that, in the debt market in pesos, CER bonds present attractive medium-term opportunities, with real rates above 8%. “Despite the recent correction in the fixed rate curve, Lecaps and Boncer continue to show value for aggressive investment profiles,” they explained. In the case of debt in dollars, they highlighted that “the rally in global bonds took the country risk to its lowest levels since 2019, with additional potential for compression if reserves strengthen and external financing is secured.”

For their part, from this same report, they maintain that The S&P Merval reached new historical highs, driven by an improvement in the local macroeconomic context and the favorable environment in international markets. “The long-term outlook remains positive, with sectors such as energy, banks and materials showing solid fundamentals and results. The gas export project to Brazil stands out as a key catalyst for the growth of the energy sector, projecting revenues of US$5.1 billion in 2025,” they revealed.

The data that the market looks at

For Portfolio Personal Investments (PPI), this week will be essential closely monitor the behavior of hard dollar debt. In this regard, they wondered if The incredible rally will continue or demand will take a pause after seeing an average cumulative return of 11.5% in November.

“While emerging markets are more stable, The Argentine Globals had a more than outstanding performance, which was allowed by the good political momentum of the government (exchange gap and inflation at the lowest levels of the Milei era, an excellent performance of the BCRA in the MULC and a rebound in the image of the ruling party)”, they point out.

In this sense, for PPI, with regard to debt in dollars, “While debt catalysts remain in place, they may need a new boost to extend the incredible performance we are seeing.”

What instruments will the Treasury offer

Regarding the debt in pesos, they warn that the key question will be: Will the Treasury again offer the market’s favorite peso instrument, Lecaps or Boncaps?

“There are certain points to take into account to answer this question: the ample liquidity of the banking system (LEFI stock is $15.3 billion as of November 22), The average monthly inflation expected by the market is 1.8% for the next 12 months (a month ago it was around 2.5%) and fixed market rates in the range of 3-2.5% TEM (a month ago they were at 3.5%)”, they revealed.

Regarding this, they indicated that they could be signs that This time the Treasury may feel more comfortable offering a menu of fixed rate instruments.

For its part, since Invest in the Stock Market (IEB)contributed: “Currently we see it convenient to diversify positions between Lecaps and Boncer, although we see value mainly in the long stretch of the CER curve with a medium-term view. “We see that the long tranche will move in line with the evolution of hard dollar bonds.”

As for the dollar bondsexpressed: “The drivers continue to be very good, purchases of reserves in the MULC, financial surpluses that proved to be sustainable, a rebound in activity and salaries that allow the positive image of the government to be maintained high in the face of next year’s elections. The ultimate catalyst is the exit from the stocks, which, as the President said, requires rebuilding reserves that could be achieved through fresh funds from the IMF, a rumor that circulated last week”.