Parallel dollars already have gaps with the official dollar of less than 10%. As a result of this convergence, analysts give their opinion on what is to come.
The exchange gap between the parallel dollars (blue, MEP and CCL) with the official dollar continued at minimum levels in the Milei era, this Tuesday. The arrival of dollars with a successful money laundering and the commitment to sustain the fiscal surplus and commercial, for now they keep the exchange rates calm.
It is important to note that exchange controls (stocks), implemented in August 2019 to stop capital flight, are still in force, allowing the central bank (BCRA) to control liquidity levels and maintain a scheduled devaluation of 2% monthly on the official parity.
“The gap between financial and official dollars is already in a comfortable single digit. In fact, In real terms, the official one is almost like the convertibility (in 1991), and the financial ones are at a minimum since May 2018 when there were no stocks.“said the economist Roberto Gerettofrom the consultancy Adcap.
Despite this, analysts are looking closely the eventual consequences of a backward exchange rate, the regional maelstrom with a devalued Brazilian real and the arrival of Donald Trump to the American presidency with a protectionist policy.
In radio statements, the economist from the FIEL Foundation, Daniel Artanawarned of a possible impact with Trump based on the experience lived in his previous mandate.
“In his previous administration, Trump hinted at a protectionist career and some countries like China compensated by depreciating their currencies. That would cause some noise for us, because the multilateral exchange rate, the dollar, would become complicated for us and would put even more pressure in terms of competition with the rest of the world.“he stated.
The exit of the “trap” is expected for “the first quarter of the year (next)”estimated the economist Fausto Spotorno, and after that the exchange rate “is not going to be close to 1,600/2,000 pesos, (but) closer to 1,100 or 1,200 it could go. I believe that this exit from the ‘stock’ is going to work pretty well.”
Source: Ambito
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