Attention investors: the six risks that will affect credit markets in 2025

Geopolitical tensions and their impact on global economies

Protracted conflicts, such as those in Russia and Ukraine, along with tensions in the Middle East and the upcoming change in the US government, create uncertainty in global politics. This could increase budget spending already tight, disrupt supply chains and cause sustained volatility in financial markets.

Increase in protectionism and challenges to global trade

The incoming US administration prioritized increasing tariffs on trading partners such as China, which could provoke retaliation and affect international trade. On the other hand, Europe has begun to implement protectionist measures against Chinese state subsidies in key sectors, such as electric vehicles. These actions can alter supply chains, generate inflation in certain markets and complicate the work of central banks.

Interest Rate Challenges

Although many central banks reduced rates, factors such as the economic growth in the US and inflation caused by tariffs could limit further cuts. Rates, even if they stabilize, would remain higher than pre-pandemic levels. This would put borrowers with higher interest exposure at risk, while differences in monetary policies could affect currencies, capital flows and emerging market debt.

Global economic slowdown and increased credit stress

Although the probability of an immediate global recession was reduced, slower growth in 2025 will hit many economies. China faces risks of deflation and higher trade barriers from the US. In addition, rising public debt since the pandemic and declining consumer confidence, especially in key markets such as China and the US, add pressure to the economic outlook.

Pressures on global real estate markets

The real estate sector faces challenges from high interest rates, declining valuations and cash flows, and the persistence of hybrid work. In the US, the office market is particularly exposed, while in China, the real estate crisis remains unresolved. These tensions could have a ripple effect on banks, consumer confidence, employment and tax revenues.

Climate risks and energy transition

The frequency and intensity of natural disasters continue to increase, posing a threat to supply chains and insurance markets. The transition to a net-zero emissions economy is also generating significant costs for governments and businesses. Although global initiatives, such as those of COP29, are progress, they are still far from covering the investment needs required to combat climate risks.

Cybersecurity and technological disruptions

Increasingly sophisticated and state-sponsored cyberattacks represent systemic risks for governments and companies. As organizations adopt advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence, and increase their digitalization, The risks of operational interruptions also grow. Investment in cybersecurity will be crucial to mitigate these risks.