Dollar 2025: the keys to the new Argentine economic scenario

Dollar 2025: the keys to the new Argentine economic scenario

Behind these numbers there are a series of economic advances that rsupport the idea of ​​stability and in some way they put in check those who claim that “We are just experiencing a financial summer”.

The economic team, in its first year of management, managed to maintain the fiscal surplus for 12 months, and in parallel managed to untangle the complex tangle of debt with importers that exceeded US$40,000 million. Added to this is the resolution of the delicate Pases and Leliqs scenario that he inherited at the beginning of the year, a financial bomb which many considered impossible to deactivate.

The positive thing was that not only did confidence increase in the path that this government seeks to draw and that is why the indices, together with the prices and quotes of the dollar they continue to go down; but also, take measures that seek to give predictability to the market, companies and citizens.

The Closing of 2024: Calmly But Attentive

For this December, estimates suggest that the dollar will remain in the range of $1,150 – $1,175. This forecast considers the traditional increase in seasonal demand due to bonuses and other end-of-year factors. But there is an external variable that is especially relevant: Brazil. The devaluation of our main trading partner keeps the Caputo team attentive, which must closely monitor the impact on our economy, since If it continues down that path it will be cheaper than Argentina facing the world.

2025: A Decisive Year for the Economic Model

In principle, projections for the dollar in 2025 suggest that it will continue to keep pace with the crawling peg. The base scenario contemplates maintaining the 2% monthly adjustment, although there is the possibility of a reduction to 1% monthly towards the second or third quarter of the year.

Where will the dollar end up in December 2025? Estimates point to a range between approximately $1,300 and $1,400, as long as certain key conditions are maintained: the continuity of fiscal adjustment, order in public accounts, sustained foreign exchange income, compliance with debt commitments and a favorable result. in the midterm elections.

Two Possible Scenarios for the Dollar

However, the scenario that is gaining more strength, supported by the progress made and announcements to come, is more optimistic. Starting from the current $1,150, with a “crawling” of 2% in the first quarter and a subsequent reduction to 1%, the accumulated devaluation would be limited to 15%, closing 2025 around $1,322.

Beyond the Dollar, 2025 will be the year to analyze

2025 will not just be a year of financial variables. Like every electoral year in Argentina, The political-economic scenario will play a fundamental role. The agenda includes potential lifting of the exchange rate, ambitious tax reduction plans and, perhaps most relevant, the first concrete signs of economic reactivation that are already beginning to appear.

Month-to-month monitoring will be crucial in a year that promises to define the country’s economic direction. The first positive indicators are on the table, but the consolidation of the model will require both technical expertise and political support.

Source: Ambito

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