The value of dollarwill continue to climb in 2025 and the fiscal deficit could show a slight reduction, according to the expectations of the analysts consulted by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
At the same time, the projections of inflationremained within the target range, but increasing in the Monetary Policy Horizon (HPM) and with the possibility that they will close both next year and in 2026, close to 6%, according to the median response from the economic agents consulted.
What do analysts expect for the value of the dollar?
By launching your forecasts in the Economic Expectations Survey (EEE), the median of the responses showed that the dollar It will culminate this year at 44.50 pesos, a value close to the current one although slightly below, after three days of declining exchange rates in the local exchange market.
For the next six months, the upward adjustment would be slight, with a greenback at 44.80 pesos, in a semester that would include the assumption of Yamandu Orsi as president, as well as before that of donald trump in USA, with measures that aim to strengthen the currency.
In this way, the biggest increase would occur in the last part of the year. Analysts anticipated a dollar at 46 pesos at the end of 2025, which in that scenario would mean an increase of 3.37% for the year. Additionally, they expect the exchange rate to reach 48.11 pesos in December 2026.
Fiscal deficit and growth
In parallel, the EEE showed that the agents consulted by the BCU estimate that this year the fiscal deficitIt will close at 3.90% of GDP, and then reduce in 2025 to 3.70%. Then, in 2026, it would rise again to 3.85%.
Regarding the growth, there was a slight upward adjustment in the variation of the GDP, with projections that in 2024 it will be 3.1%. For next year, growth expectations remained at 2.5% and for 2026 they were reduced to 2.4%.
Inflation and a warning sign
Regarding the expectations of inflation,Analysts expect this year to close at 5.37%, compared to the 5% expected in the previous survey. Despite the increase, the figure remains within the target range set by the BCU.
For 2025, projections showed a drop to 5.75% from 5.83% last month, although the CPI It would push very close to the ceiling of the target range in 2026, with an estimated inflation of 5.96%, which represents an increase compared to the 5.70% of November expectations.
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
