The REM presents estimates on key variables such as the dollar, inflation, interest rates and economic growth.
He Central Bank will publish this Tuesday its Survey of Market Expectations (REM) corresponding to December 2024, the last month of the year. This report brings together the projections of 42 participants, including 29 consulting firms and research centers, both local and international, as well as 13 financial entities in Argentina. The REM presents estimates on key variables such as the dollar, inflation, interest rates and economic growth.
Inflation: what data did the last REM provide
At the beginning of December, the consulting firms and banks that participate in the Market Expectations Survey (REM) of the Central Bank (BCRA) They revised their inflation projections downwards. However, for the short term, the forecasts indicate a brake on the deceleration and even a slight rebound during the last two months of 2024.
The BCRA that took place between November 27 and 29, indicated that inflation will stop its deceleration. Even the median projections predict a slight rebound of the CPI in that period, usually marked by greater seasonality. Specifically, the analysts consulted by the BCRA They estimated a rebound of up to 2.9% for December inflation.
In this way, at that time, the median of the opinions collected showed the forecast that 2024 would close with end-to-end inflation of 118.8%.
However, the expectation reflected by the REM is that the inflation slowdown resume its course at the beginning of 2025. Forecasts point to 2.7% in January, a more significant decline in February to 2.4%, another slight rebound to 2.5% in March (start of classes through) and a decrease to 2.3% in April to reach 2.1% in May.
Inflation Inflation Prices Consumption Supermarket
Mariano Fuchila
Dollar: what analysts expected in December
The inflation projections were related to the consolidation of the expectations that the Government managed to maintain its “exchange anchor” policy throughout 2024.
For example, “the median of the REM nominal exchange rate projections was located at $1,021 per dollar for the average of December 2024 which involved a average monthly increase of 2.0% of exchange rate parity,” stated the BCRA report.
Likewise, analysts projected that in January The official dollar will be at $1,042, that is, the same pace of the exchange rate table will be maintained. Starting in February, the expected monthly advance moderates slightly and sets a pace that slowly pierces 2%.
Source: Ambito
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