The reports from two consulting firms highlight that the deceleration path that the December CPI data will reaffirm will open the game for the reduction of the “crawling-peg” and news in the Treasury and BCRA rates.
Private measurements suggest that December inflation was less than 3% monthly. “Looking ahead to the inflation data for December that will be known next Tuesday, The measurements of the private consultants were in a range of 2.3-2.9% m/mwith a median of 2.6% m/m”, indicates the daily report of the consulting firm Facimex This suggests a change in the monetary policy rate.
Most consulting firms measured a slight acceleration compared to the 2.4% monthly rate reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) for November and suggest that the core was higher than the general level. “Core inflation measurements were in the range of 2.5-3.0% m/m, with a median of 2.9% m/m,” says Facimex.
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Falling inflation opens the game to lower the “crawling-peg” and the rate
And they highlight that The inflation data for the City of Buenos Aires that will be known this Thursday will indicate that the consumer price index (CPI) for December would be similar to that of October and Novemberwhich will leave “everything ready for the Central Bank (BCRA) to slow down the crawling-peg from 2% to 1% monthly,” they anticipate.
Likewise, from the consulting firm Delphos, they indicate that the inflation expected by private inflation consulting firms projects a record close to 2.2%/2.5% monthly and that This data “could lead to a slowdown in the pace of the crawling peg or even a new reduction in the monetary policy ratewhich, in both cases, could push the peso curves upward.”
What’s next for Treasury rates
On the other hand, they expect, looking ahead to next week, that there will be “high volatility in the peso curves, driven by the Treasury tender and the publication of Tuesday’s inflation data.” In this sense, they point out that the large maturities planned for this month, together with the recent exchange rate volatility, could lead the Treasury to offer more attractive rates with the aim of stabilizing the market and refinancing its commitments.
This, they warn, is framed in a context in which 50% of maturities in pesos are concentrated in the first quarter, so they consider “it is likely that new exchange strategies will be implemented to extend the duration of the debt.”
Source: Ambito
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