Deal between Israel and Hamas: Breakthrough in the Gaza conflict: hope and skepticism

The war in the Gaza Strip has been going on for more than a year, tens of thousands of people have been killed and the coastal area is largely in ruins. The conflict had and continues to have massive impacts in the Middle East region. Now, after months of efforts by the USA, Egypt and Qatar to bring about a ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas, the long-awaited breakthrough has come. The most important questions and answers about the agreement:

What does the agreement mean for Israel – and what for Hamas?

If the ceasefire, which was initially agreed for six weeks, also ushers in a permanent end to the war, there are unlikely to be any real winners in terms of the conflicting parties. Israel has neither achieved its war goal of completely destroying Hamas, nor will all hostages from the Gaza Strip be immediately freed as a result of this agreement.

The Islamist Hamas, which describes itself as a resistance movement against Israel, has lost its most important leaders and largely lost control of the Gaza Strip, which it has ruled since 2007. The future of their fight against the Jewish state is uncertain.

The biggest losers and sufferers of the war are undoubtedly the hundreds of thousands of affected civilians in Gaza as well as the hostages and their relatives. For all of them, the agreement now means some hope.

Israeli society is also divided and traumatized by the massacre by Hamas and other extremists in Israel on October 7, 2023 and by the longest war in the state’s history. The hope of many Israelis that the Palestinians and their demands for their own state can simply be ignored has proven to be deceptive.

In addition, Israel’s reputation has suffered greatly in many parts of the world. Since it is questionable whether an agreement will be reached on the release of the remaining hostages in the second phase of the agreement, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also confronted with accusations that he has abandoned the remaining hostages with the current agreement.

How stable is the agreement?

The agreement is on shaky ground – if only because the Israeli government and Hamas have vowed to destroy each other. Given the deep distrust, it is unclear whether both sides will stick to the agreed steps for weeks and whether certain passages will be interpreted differently. The outcome of the negotiations in the next phases of the agreement on a permanent end to the war and Israel’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip is also uncertain.

Observers therefore warn that fighting could begin again after the first phase of the ceasefire – especially since there are supporters of a continuation of the war on both sides. On the other hand, there is a great longing among the Palestinian civilian population in Gaza, as well as in Israel, for the weapons to be silent after 15 months of war.

Netanyahu also caused irritation with a short statement during the night. His office said he only wanted to make a statement about the ceasefire after the final details had been clarified. However, approval by the security cabinet and then the entire Israeli government was expected this Thursday. In recent months, during indirect negotiations, Netanyahu has been accused of repeatedly blowing up chances for a ceasefire agreement at the last minute.

How is the release of the hostages going now?

As a first step, 33 of the 98 remaining hostages held by Hamas are to be released within six weeks. The first group includes women – including soldiers – as well as two children under five, the elderly and the sick. According to media reports, these include two Israelis who have been held in the Gaza Strip for more than ten years.

It remains uncertain how many of the hostages kidnapped into the Gaza Strip during the unprecedented Hamas massacre on October 7, 2023 are still alive. Israeli hospitals have prepared to receive deeply traumatized and sometimes sick and injured hostages. According to the plan, negotiations on the second phase – and thus the release of the remaining abductees – should begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire.

Is more help finally coming to the Gaza Strip?

At least that is the hope of civilians and aid organizations trying to gain access to the coastal area sealed off by Israel. The important Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt, which has been closed for eight months, could reopen as early as Thursday. Around 600 trucks with relief supplies have been prepared for import, said a representative of the Egyptian Red Crescent in North Sinai.

The humanitarian situation in Gaza is catastrophic. According to the UN, more than 90 percent of the Palestinian population suffers from severe hunger. There is a lack of water, emergency shelter, medicine and everyday necessities. According to media reports, under the agreement, 600 trucks will bring aid to Gaza every day. Because of the fighting, looting, Israel’s restrictions and a lack of trucks and drivers, much less aid has recently arrived in Gaza than needed.

Can reconstruction begin in Gaza?

It’s still far too early for that. According to US President Joe Biden, reconstruction should only begin in the third phase of the ceasefire – i.e. after phase two, in which all remaining Hamas hostages are to be released. Egypt has promised an international conference on reconstruction. But before a possible date, the list of participants or even possible financial commitments can be finalized, there are still many hurdles to overcome in the conflict. Above all, there is the risk that new fighting could break out.

It is also questionable who will govern the largely destroyed coastal area in the future. Israel and Hamas are far apart in their ideas. Israel categorically rejects further Hamas rule and threatens to resume the fight until the power of the already decimated terrorist organization is finally broken. Hamas, on the other hand, is demanding a guarantee that the war will end – probably also in order to reposition itself and regain its old position of power. Or to rearm again, as Israel’s right fears.

The outgoing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently outlined a plan for the future of the Gaza Strip with the following core principles: On the one hand, there is a need for a government led by Palestinians that unites the Gaza Strip with the West Bank and is subordinate to the local authority. On the other hand, there should be no long-term military occupation of the Gaza Strip by Israel, nor any reduction in the size of the Gaza Strip or attempts to besiege or block it after the conflict.

Did Donald Trump’s threats work?

The impending change of power in Washington appears to have been a factor in the progress in the negotiations. The government of US President Joe Biden has always stood by Israel, but has also increasingly criticized the conduct of the war in Gaza. His designated successor Donald Trump, on the other hand, is known as an ally of Netanyahu and it is questionable how much his government will put Israel’s government in its place. Against this background, his threats to Hamas that “all hell would break loose” in the Middle East if the hostages were not released before his inauguration were certainly to be taken seriously.