donald trump is the new president of USA and the market recalibrates strategies to analyze what impact its protectionist and extractivist policies will have. At the local level, the city is attentive to the president’s economic agenda, his approach to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and his tour in Davos.
US macro data and what will happen to interest rates?
According to Invest in the Stock Market (IEB) Of the economic indicators that were published in recent days, the most notable are “the price index to the consumer and, in particular, to its core disinflation”.
“Both its monthly and interannual variation were below consensus and confirmed the trend of slowing inflation. With respect to the published data related to the level of activity, they project that the US economy begins the year with a positive statistical drag and remains resilient.”they explained.
Regarding the economic calendar, it will be a week without highly relevant indicators, but Donald Trump will be the focus of the week. For its part, the US Treasury will be tendering 20-year debt.
For this broker, “the publication of the CPI along with the expressions of John Williams (president of the New York Reserve) and Christopher Waller (member of the board of directors of the Federal Reserve) They modified interest rate expectations again. While the publication of the Employment Situation Report modified the timing of the rate cut from the June 18 to September 17 meeting, The publication of the CPI took said event back to the June meeting“.
The change in interest rate expectations, added to the statements of Scott Bessent (nominated by Donald Trump as future Secretary of the Treasury), contributed to defining a turning point in the deterioration of the rental market.
Local panorama, Milei tour and tax data
He Ministry of Economy announced the fiscal result for December, which, as the Minister of Economy had anticipated, presented a primary deficit of US$1,301,046 million, being the only primary deficit of 2024, and a financial one of US$1,557,305 million, the largest of 2024, but much smaller than that of December of last year, which was US$2.4 trillion.
“With this, the Non-Financial Public Sector (SPNF) accumulated throughout last year a financial surplus of approximately 0.3% of the gross domestic product (GDP) and a primary surplus of 1.8%. Comparing the results of 2023, Javier Milei made an improvement of almost 5% of GDP. Regarding the current year, the government will seek a primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP to be able to cover the interest on the debt and, thus, achieve financial balance, proposed in the 2025 budget,” they added from IEB.
“As for loans to the private sector, the government’s main focus for 2025, we see that banks are beginning to function as such, producing enormous growth in loans in pesos to the private sector, as the economic team had requested. “they added.
Finally, they highlighted that last Tuesday the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) published the inflation for December, which coincides with that of the REM: 2.7%, achieving three consecutive months of inflation close to 2.5%.
“The Core CPI, which excludes seasonal behavior, was once again above the general level of inflation. In detail, the Regulated CPI registered, as expected, a substantially greater increase than the general level of 3.4%, and continuing With the trend, services continued to register greater increases than goods. In this way, interannual/accumulated inflation stood at 117.8% during 2024”, they closed.
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
