The Government made a decision that impacts the reserves of the Central Bank, the collection and also on the dollar. What is expected for the first semester of the year.
Javier Milei’s government decided reduce withholdings to the agricultural sector Until June 30. According to City analysts, this measure will not only relieve producers who face the effects of falling in international grains prices, but also It will also guarantee the currency flow of the sector during the first half of the year. In addition, the “dollar injection” will contribute to maintaining the exchange rate, avoiding abrupt jumps and allowing the government to comply with its objective of disinflation.
This measure is part of a context in which, according to official data, the Central Bank increased its intervention through bonds, reaching US $ 619 million, compared to US $ 325 million registered in December. During that period, the exchange gap remained between 16% and 20%.
“Those dollars offered by the financial channel derived from the Low of retentions would help mitigate BCRA interventions. With data until the middle of January, the departure in 2025 for this channel was US $ 619 million, the largest since October 2023. For its part, in December the data had been US $ 325 million. To the monetary authority the sale of dollars via bondos to sterilize pesos in the frame From GMA capital.
Long life to Carry Trade?
In this sense, for the Alyc, The stability of the CCL is still attractive when looking for significant returns in dollar From the commitment to weight and stressed that the Carry Trade depended more on this factor than on the rate obtained in pesos.
However, he warns, “a” counted with Liqui “today contained below $ 1,200 is not a guarantee of results.” “In recent months we have seen a substantial Compression of yields in local currency, product of the break of 4% monthly inflation In September. Thus, the accrual of instruments in pesos, which today runs to 2.7% monthly in relation to the monetary policy rate, It can be rapidly erased if there will be an overheating of the financial dollar “they explained.
For GMA, the current situation implies risks in Carry Trade strategy and indicate, finally, that the financial dollar remains at “historically low” levels.
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The risks after the decline in retentions
From Econviews, they also point out that risks could appear after June 30 and will be linked to the financial decisions taken by the sector.
“Post June uncertainty can be a double -edged edge weapon. If producers decide to sell the harvest massively before June 30 there may be a” door 12 “effect, in which the local price of soybeans falls, causing the decline of retentions benefit exporting companies without implying real improvement for producers. “
In this sense, they add that “the greatest export settlement will help the Central Bank accumulate more reservations in the first half of the year, and also It will contribute to containing the exchange gap by that of the Blend dollar. We saw a first effect with the decrease in the financial dollars of today. This is good news for bonds, to the extent that the increase in reserves COMPESE the fiscal cost of the measure that we estimate about 0.15% of GDP “.
Source: Ambito
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