Government’s commitment to deepen the exchange appreciation To use the dollar as anchor Against inflation derives in an increase in currency drainage due to, among other issues, the Argentine tourism boom abroad. Thus, the Stock of loans for foreign currency consumption with credit cards practically tripled with respect to last January and reached the highest level since February 2018.
The last official data available dates from January 22. The Central Bank’s forms show that the stock loan stock with credit card It climbed au $ S761 millionwithin the framework of the incessant ascending career that has been experiencing for months to the compass of the exchange rate and the increase in Argentina against the rest of the countries.
That amount implies a Growth of 185% compared to the average of January 2024 (US $ 267 million) And it’s about higher value since February 9, 2018 (US $ S772 million). In this way, it was close to the record of US $ 838 million marked on February 2 of that same year, in another context of strong exchange appreciation and weeks before the run was unleashed that began the Mauricio Macri government crisis.
Behind the phenomenon, there is the Tourism boom abroad: Among the sectors with economic capacity to choose to make an extensive trip during the summer break, the comings to Brazil, Chile, the United States and other destinations were fired. In Rio de Janeiro or Florianopolis, by case, more accessible prices can be obtained than in the classic destinations of the Buenos Aires coast.
According to INDEC data, In December, 50.6% interannual grew broad tourism and the arrival of foreign visitors fell 9.6%. The Purchasing Tours to bordering countries to make products at much cheaper prices than Argentina: last month the amount of hikers who crossed the border and returned to the country without spending abroad shot 116.1% year -on -year.
Another factor that could have added to the increase in credit card spending in foreign currency is the official stimulus, low tax route, to the Import of goods through the private mail system (Courier)which can be accessed through platforms.
Pressure on the gap
The Consultant 1816 considered that this growth consumption growth in dollars It is a factor behind the largest demand of MEP “And the constant presence of the central to contain the gap and keep the CCL below that ‘crystal ceiling’ at $ 1,190.”
As he said Scopeaccording to data presented by the vice president of the entity, Vladimir Werning, In the first half of January the BCRA spent US $ 619 million of reservations to intervene over financial dollars and mitigate the bullish pressures, which increased in that period despite the continuity of the Blend dollar, which turns 20% of the export supply to the CCL and implies an indirect intervention tool.
Months ago, The BCRA said that 50% of Argentines’ expenses abroad are canceled with own dollars of consumers (mostly acquired in the MEP) And the other half It is canceled with pesos at the value of the cardboard, that is, leaves the reservations Net international, which are negative in around US $ 10,000 million. This occurs even though this exchange rate is more than $ 200 above the MEP. In 1816, they considered that it is possible that the percentage of payment with its own currencies increased in the summer to face higher expenses, such as passages and lodging.
The consultant added another factor: “The growth of the payments abroad through virtual walletsthat It is not reflected in card balances statistics, it also generates immediate demand for CCL And I could explain why the volumes of AL30 and GD30 grew significantly against Cable in January. ”
Dollar: Withholdings, appreciation and liquidation
The truth is that Luis Caputo is resolved to reinforce the exchange anchor And, therefore, the appreciation. Next week the reduction of the rhythm of devaluation in half will come into force: The official exchange rate will begin to mark 1% monthly.
As this medium told Exchange policy is the key point of negotiation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Can there be agreement without devaluation? In an interview with Condo, Héctor Torres, former representative of Argentina in the Board of the Agency, considered that it is possible but that, without a flexibility of the exchange policy, it is difficult for a program with a new indebtedness that contemplates an initial disbursement, which It can be used to intervene and that the stock exit.
In the face of face -to -face negotiation with the technical staff of the Fund (which ended this Monday), last week the Announcement on withholdings He gave a new sign on the government’s commitment to reinforce the exchange anchor. Beyond the fact that the flood of liquidations did not yet materialize, with the field waiting for more details, the design of the measure aim to add dollar offer quickly to compensate for currency drainage by other ways generated by the appreciation. A Personal Personal Investment (PPI) report suggests that it is a bet on two bands.
“Since the ‘blend’ is still standing, this would imply a greater liquidation of agriculture both the official market for 80% and for the financial market for the remaining 20%,” said PPI. And he stated that, in the Mulc, the BCRA would have more space to buy currencies from an acceleration in the private offer, after in the last four wheels last week sold $ 121 million and put an end to its buying streak of 14 days. “In the financial market, the largest offer of agriculture would lead the BCRA to keep its intervention on the margin, after having used US $315 million in the second half of December YU $ S619 million in the first of January to contain the gap,” He added.
“For the government, it is also a sign that you need dollars with some urgencyeven giving fiscal resources in exchange for currency settlement to occur before, ”said the consultant Epyca. He added: “The hardening of the exchange anchor as an anti -inage policy and the financial surplus allow the government to take a measure that will increase the price of some foods and that it will reduce its tax revenues.”
In rigor, the requirement for exporters to liquid , It seeks to promote commercial debt through export prefinancing. It would be a tool to anticipate the entry of currencies despite the fact that the shipment of the merchandise is made months later.
The doubt between producers It is what percentage of the liquidation will be done under the new terms (it is the exporters that enter the currencies), what financial cost will the advance will have and, therefore, how much of the withdrawal the cereal will move to the purchase prices of their grains. The lure that The economic team will put on the table It is, once again, The incentive for “Carry Trade”which will be reinforced from next week by the reduction of the rhythm of devaluation. That is, tempt exporters to increase indebtedness in foreign currency and start rate in pesos.
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
