According to the most recent look of prominent financial institutions of Wall Street as Morgan Stanley and Bank of America (Bofa)Argentina would be aimed at a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) In 2025.
This pact, considered fundamental for the country’s economic stabilization, could include an initial disbursement of between US $ 5,000 YU $ 10,000 million, subject to the fulfillment of fiscal goals and reforms in the exchange policy, of course. Both banks agree that this agreement sIt was a key step to refinance debt and attract foreign investments.
As for the exchange rate, the current scheme is expected to evolve towards a system of “dirty flotation“, with a dollar unification around $ 1,400 pesos by December 2025. This process would imply the gradual elimination of the Blend dollar and a reduction in intervention in the parallel market. In addition, it is projected that the Central Bank accumulate reservations for up to US $ 7,000 million during this year, which would facilitate a progressive departure from the exchange rate and would strengthen market confidence.
What do Wall Street giants say
The projections of Bofa and Morgan Stanley They emphasize that the program with the IMF could be extended until 2028, with an approach to reducing the fiscal deficit and the implementation of structural adjustments. In this sense, the government of Javier Milei A primary surplus of 1.3% of the internal gross product (GDP) in 2025, thanks to a decrease in public spending by 30% in real terms and the elimination of energy subsidies.
These measures would be fundamental to recover access to international credit and allow Argentina to issue sovereign bonds for US $ 3,000 million in mid -2025.
Both financial institutions also underline the importance of The accumulation of reservations to guarantee exchange stability. Morgan Stanley estimates that the Central Bank could increase its reserves by US $ 7,000 million this year, which would lay the bases for gradual flexibility of the headache. However, they warn about possible risks, such as delays in negotiations with the IMF or external shocks that could affect access to financing and economic stability.
Investment recommendations
Regarding investment recommendations, Both Bofa and Morgan Stanley maintain an optimistic position regarding Argentine sovereign bonds. Bafa suggests overcoming titles such as Global 2030 and 2038, highlighting its attractive performance compared to other emerging markets.
For its part, Morgan Stanley highlights the potential of energy and export companies, which would benefit from a greater exchange opening. In addition, they anticipate that arGentine could be recounted on emerging market rates of MSCIwhich would increase the interest of international investors.
Bank of America
The Milei government faces the challenge of defining the terms of the agreement with the IMF in the coming months, as well as its strategy to normalize the exchange system. While market expectations point to a pact in April, The deadlines could extend depending on the negotiations. In parallel, the accumulation of reserves will be a determining factor to sustain investor confidence and advance the elimination of exchange restrictions.
Meanwhile, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, He has avoided giving specific details about the agreement, maintaining a reserved position. However, markets remain attentive to any official signal indicating the course of economic policy by 2025. In this context, fiscal discipline and accumulation of reserves will be key elements to consolidate economic recovery and attract long -term investments.
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
