Wall Street banks and investors They began to predict how much the dollar If the government gets funds to achieve, finally lift the exchange rate. Something that will depend on the negotiations that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is doing with the administration of Javier Milei.
Thus, the forecast that Bank of America (Bofa) which he published in a report for his customers places the dollar at $ 1,400 next December.
“It is highly likely that the parties reach an agreement on an extended facilities program for April. A significant initial disbursement and refinancing of most of the debt service with the IMF until 2028 are expected″, Said the bank on the agreement between Argentina and the IMF.
They also argued that “the exchange rate will remain strongly administered and that The Government will not accept a great devaluation before the elections. We foresee an acceleration of depreciation after elections and exchange unification at $ 1,400 in December, as a result of the elimination of exchange controls (and in a context of weights of pesos still trapped by restrictions), “Bofa projected.
On the other hand according to Latinfocus Consensus Forecast the official wholesale exchange rate will reach December at $ 1,348 and the parallel to $ 1,332. It should be remembered that this report incorporates the consensus of 50 consultants and private, local and international banks.
JP Morgan: The optimistic look at the end of the year
For this important bank, the foundations for sustainable growth to release the Capital controls and get access to the debt market before the end of the year.
As to the elimination of stocksthey said that facilitating the flow of private investment towards Argentina, would serve as a necessary step for Argentina Argentina by the MSCI to the emerging market category.
CEPO’s exit gradually, Morgan Stanley’s gaze
In the base scenario raised by this entity, the exit of the exchange rate will take place in a staggered manner. The Government will advance in the standardization of import payment and in the flexibility of access to the financial dollarOr, but it will maintain restrictions on the purchase of currencies by individuals and companies until reservations reach an adequate level, they estimated.
Besides, The report said that the strength of the real exchange rate is a challenge for the competitiveness of the export sector. “The appreciation of the peso against the dollar in real terms reduced the positive balance of the trade balance and generated an increase in the current account deficit,” they said. However, Morgan Stanley He considered that this process can be compensated by the improvement in financial flows.
Source: Ambito
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