He market provides that the index of Consumer prices (CPI) will pierce 2% monthly in April, which implies that the private sector projects An inflation of 23.2% for all this year. As for the dollardespite the CRAWLING PEG at 1%, it is expected that increases for the end of the year. This was published in the ReM of the Central Bank (BCRA).
“He Rem January reflects more optimistic expectationswith inflation in descent, exchange stability and moderate growth. However, the Challenges persist in fiscal consolidation and in the support of the commercial surplus“They highlighted from the Córdoba Strategic Planning Center (CEPEC).
Precisely from this entity they described that the government should “comply with inflationary deceleration, without affecting the level of activity, Hold the fiscal surplus without resorting to sudden adjustments in social spending and subsidies, and strengthening foreign trade, since the reduction of the commercial surplus can generate pressures in the currency market“
Inflation: Optimism continues
According to the new projections, the price increases will continue the deceleration that will pierce 2% in April and will reach 1.6% in July. In addition, For all 2025 the private sector projects an inflation of 23.2%2.7 percentage points (pp) below what the Previous rem.
The peculiarity is that those entities embedded by the central among the ten most precise are even more optimistic and see that The CPI will already rise less than 2% in February.
“The REM made by the BCRA in January showed that inflationary expectations continue to be anchored. The median located the January inflation by 2.3%: -0.4 pp less than the December REM (2.7%). As for nucleus inflation, this expects to be in 2.4%, “he outlined PPI.
In this regard they indicated that this Friday It will be a key day To intuit How December inflation could come. “At noon, The CABA Statistics Institute will publish its measurement, which will allow anticipating how inflation could give in GBAthe region with the greatest weighting within the CPI basket (44.5%), “specified from the same broker.
Dollar: In line with crawling PEG although with doubts
As for the projections for the official dollar, reductions were observed for the first semester This year. If the forecast is fulfilled, in the first half of 2025 the currency would climb 7.9%. For the whole year the expected increase is 17.6%lower than the projected inflation for the same period.
Nevertheless, For the next 12 months the increase in the planned wholesale exchange rate exhibited an upward adjustment (to 19%)which implicitly indicates that the market sizes an exchange correction in early 2026. It should be noted that President Javier Milei said that on January 1 of next year there will be no more stocks.
In this regard, from Aurum valuesthey explained that “it is observed A growing divergence between the evolution of the official dollar with the 1% crawling and the prices of future dollar contracts until January 2026. While the official dollar follows a predictable and gently ascending trajectory, future contracts contribute to increasingly high levels, expanding the gap that reaches 9.9% at the end of the period. “
“This difference could suggest that the market anticipates that the administrated devaluation policy (the CRAWL) would not be sustained in the long termpossibly incorporating expectations of a discreet jump of the exchange rate. In a context of exchange rate, the coverage premium in the futures would indicate distrust in the stability of the current scheme and A possible correction in the future, either by relaxation of restrictions or an abrupt adjustment of the exchange rate “they closed.
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
