Carlos Melconian, renowned economist, analyzed the current economic situation of Argentina and addressed several of the most discussed issues in the economic agenda, Like the exchange ratethe price of dollarthe inflation and the possibility of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In his opinion, the government should present “a specific roadmap” to face the lifting of exchange restrictions, which, according to him, It is not yet clear. Although the Executive has raised as possible conditions to lift the stocks the reduction of inflation, the arrival of IMF funds or the stabilization of the monetary base, Melconian stressed the importance of having a detailed strategy that guides the future decisions , although without the need to set exact deadlines.
The economist insisted that it is essential that the government clearly defines the way to follow in relation to the exchange rate regime. Melconian commented that talking about a “coin competition“It is not enough, since the true proposal should be a” bimonterity with coexistence “that must be treated as a deliberate objective. In his opinion, this process requires deliberate and sustained efforts to achieve stability, he said in an interview in TN.
On the backward dollar
On the value of the dollar, Melconian He said that, if the dollar were $ 700, then there would be an exchange delay. However, he clarified that the way in which the price is being reduced and the foundations that support that reduction are not harmless.
In his analysis, he criticized the strategy of trying to reduce inflation at a too accelerated pace, with a fiscal adjustment that could generate counterproductive effects, such as the need to lower taxes to encourage the sale of dollars. “The president is the one that exceeds some meaningless things. You have to move forward in the process, where that opts and one day we will have the dollar that we must have, ”said Melconian, adding that the objective must be solid foundations, such as capital income and investments, which are enough to guarantee the long -term exchange stability.
As for inflation, the economist estimated that the figure corresponding to the month of January could be around 2.5%, although he did not rule out that it could be somewhat lower, in line with the estimate of Minister Caputo, which provides for a 2, 3%. However, Melconian stressed that the real problem with inflation is not solved with the numbers of the first month of the year.
In his opinion, the problem is deeper: inflation is a reflection of a price set that is still misaligned, especially the prices of public services, which have not experienced the necessary adjustments. “The electoral scheme has slowed all this,” he explained. As for private services prices, Melconian considered that, although some of them go up early, it is important to take into account that these services have their own dynamic, influenced by the supply and demand of the market. “More than advanced, stabilizations have been rebellious,” he added.
The subsidies
Regarding the issue of subsidies, Melconian pointed out that the decrease in subsidies would have a positive impact on public spending, which would allow reducing taxes in the future and, in the long term, improving the competitiveness of the country. However, he stressed that it should not be tempted to seek a monthly reduction of 1%inflation, since the important thing is to have sustainable and controlled inflation over time.
Regarding external debt, Melconian recalled that Argentina has pending payments with the IMF for a total of US $ 18,000 million by 2025, which aggravates the situation of the exchange market. Despite the government’s attempts to facilitate the liquidation of foreign exchange by exporters, the economist warned that the country faces a accumulated debt of US $ 23,000 million, adding the deficit of US $ 5,000 million and payments to be made.
Melconian indicated that, to solve this situation, the country should seek financing, but without falling into more indebtedness, and that a viable solution could be to generate a commercial surplus that allows the purchase of dollars in a sustained way.
The agreement with the IMF, according to Melconian, is key not only because it could bring the necessary dollars to deal with the debt, but also because it would serve as a positive sign that the government is willing to assume an active role in the financing of the short -term payments.
“It would be the starting sign that the State began to see how the US $ 18,000 million finances,” concluded the economist, insisting that the agreement with the fund must be a crucial step to order the country’s finances and achieve the Economic stability
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
