Coronavirus: The most important questions and answers about the sixth wave

questions and answers

In the shadow of the attention paid to the war in Ukraine, the corona pandemic is picking up speed again in this country. The number of daily new infections rose to a new record this Thursday: 262,752 cases were reported to the Robert Koch Institute, the seven-day incidence is 1288.5. Nevertheless, further easing is pending: On March 20th, according to a federal and state decision, most of the corona requirements are to be abolished, only “basic protection” should remain.

Is the situation worrying? What should be done now? And how does it continue? The answers to the most important questions:

Are we at the beginning of a sixth corona wave?

Yes, says bioinformatician Lars Kaderali from the University of Greifswald. The main reason for the current increase in incidence is the spread of the probably even more contagious omicron subtype BA.2 in combination with the easing of protective measures. Carsten Watzl, Secretary General of the German Society for Immunology, describes the development more as a “hump” in the curve than as a full-fledged new wave. The epidemiologist Hajo Zeeb also speaks of a “never completely abated 5th wave”. Regardless of the name, one thing is clear – the decline in the number of cases has ended for the time being. The development is not a surprise. The models of a research team led by Kai Nagel from the Technical University (TU) Berlin had predicted a renewed increase a good two weeks ago.

Why are the incidences rising again at all?

The corona rules have recently been significantly relaxed in many federal states. Proof of vaccination or a current test is no longer necessary in shops and museums, for example, and many contact restrictions have been lifted. In addition, the even more contagious omicron subtype BA.2 is now likely to be more widespread in Germany than its predecessor BA.1. “At the same time, many people have a feeling of ‘Corona is over’,” says Watzl. You allow yourself more again, meet again in larger groups. “Of course, that makes it easier for the virus to infect more people again.”

How will events develop further?

The numbers are likely to continue to rise in the coming weeks. “In our model, the apex of the BA.2 wave is around the beginning of April,” says Nagel. Once the peak has been reached, the incidences will decrease slowly and remain at a higher level than last year until the summer, immunologist Watzl suspects. “We’re not getting single-digit incidences this summer.” In the best case, it’s like Denmark, says Zeeb from the Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology in Bremen. BA.2 had spread there earlier than in Germany. There, the numbers only rose again for a very short time and have since shown a clear downward trend.

Are the current developments worrying?

“We don’t have to prevent every infection,” says Watzl. From an immunological point of view, the current events also have their good sides: “Anyone who has been vaccinated and is now getting a breakthrough infection should be comparatively well protected in the coming winter.” The greatest dangers are unvaccinated and immunocompromised people who either cannot get vaccinated or for whom the vaccine does not work well. “Of course, these people are more likely to be reached if the incidence is high.”

How is the situation in the hospitals?

Despite the very high number of cases, the burden on hospitals in the omicron wave has so far been significantly lower than in previous waves. Because the diseases are mostly mild. “In many clinics, the omicron wave is more of an organizational challenge than a medical one,” says Watzl. Infections are often found in patients who have come to the hospital with completely different symptoms. “Of course, these patients still have to be isolated, in special isolation wards or in their own rooms in the normal wards.” That ties up staff and beds. And of course Corona does not spare doctors and nurses either – a high staff shortage can then also lead to overloading of the clinics.

What is it like in the intensive care units?

“We currently have the situation (…) with a view to the care and treatment of Covid patients under control,” says Gernot Marx, President of the Intensive Care Medicine Association Divi. Around 2,000 patients are currently being treated in the intensive care units because of a severe course, and the trend is currently falling despite rising incidences. Relaxation, also seasonal, is possible with the beginning of spring without endangering the care of seriously ill or emergency patients. The modelers do not expect a new peak in the load on the intensive care units or in the number of deaths. According to the WHO, no increase in the severity of the disease has been observed with subtype BA.2 compared to BA.1, even if there were indications of this in animal experiments.

What should be done now?

Lars Kaderali considers the announced easing to be justifiable due to the relaxed situation in the clinics. “But you should only loosen up carefully and only with the option of going back if you realize that it’s getting too much.”

Basic protective measures such as masks indoors/public transport are still necessary, says epidemiologist Zeeb. “It’s also about not exposing older people in homes to the risk of infection again. In any case, further testing must be carried out here.” In the private sector, common sense is also required with regard to protective measures, stresses immunologist Watzl. “It makes a difference whether young, healthy people meet in a larger group or whether I go to a family celebration with grandma and grandpa.”