Based on the vaccination rates in August, a high-incidence strategy can be expected to result in several hundred new cases per million inhabitants every day. If only one country goes this way, the other could be endangered. Countries should “stop pretending they can fight the pandemic on their own”.
From Austria there are political scientist Barbara Prainsack from the University of Vienna, the epidemiologist Eva Schernhammer from the MedUni Vienna and Harvard Medical School (USA), Thomas Czypionka from the Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) or Peter Willeit from the Medical University of Innsbruck and from the University of Cambridge (Great Britain) are important experts among the authors. As expected, the containment measures, which have been relaxed due to the low number of cases, are currently causing new infections to rise again, according to the paper. In fact, 902 new infections with the SARS-CoV-2 virus were reached in Austria on Wednesday, the highest value since May 13th.
“Coherent and effective strategy”
The more infectious Delta variant means that “Europe needs a coherent and effective strategy” before the schools are fully operational again and the accelerated spread of coronaviruses known to occur at cooler temperatures (seasonality) takes effect, the scientists write. A possible high-incidence strategy is based on the hope that if there are still fewer contact restrictions and restrictions, a relatively large number of infections can be afforded after a certain number of people have already gone through the disease or have already been vaccinated. As a result, especially severe cases become rarer and the health system is not threatened with overload as quickly, despite the sometimes high numbers.
On the other hand, there is the low-incidence strategy, in which the opening steps are adapted to the progress of the vaccination in order to keep the new infection rates as low as possible. Testing and the contact tracking system (TTI) would then largely control the situation. At vaccination rates like the one at the moment, the number of new infections remained well below a hundred per day, the researchers calculated. If countries now pursue the former strategy, they also increase the risk for low-incidence countries.
Lower death rate and fewer long-covid cases
The research group has already emphasized the advantages of low numbers several times in previous publications: They include, among other things, a lower death rate and fewer long-covid cases, better avoidance of the emergence of new questionable variants, a functioning TTI system, fewer people in quarantine and restrictions the economy as well as open schools and kindergartens over the cold season. In contrast, higher incidences still carry the risk that intensive care units will be overloaded and that freedoms will be reduced again, according to the paper.
The scientists “recommend that all European countries act collectively to achieve low incidences – at least until everyone has the opportunity to get vaccinated”. This is also a question of solidarity between the states, which also have to communicate clearly and counter false information.
Jane Stock is a technology author, who has written for 24 Hours World. She writes about the latest in technology news and trends, and is always on the lookout for new and innovative ways to improve his audience’s experience.
