One and a half years of life with the coronavirus is exhausting. Many have died, some are broke, others are psychologically stressed. And probably everyone is wondering when this will end. Several experts now name a period.
After a year and a half of the corona pandemic, many people ask themselves exhausted: How much longer? Maybe another half to nine months, says the head of the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (KBV). “I assume that Corona will end in spring 2022,” said Andreas Gassen of the Düsseldorf “Rheinische Post” (Thursday). “Until then, the vaccination rate will be a little higher, but above all the number of people who have recovered with antibodies will increase. Restrictions will then probably become completely unnecessary.”
The epidemiologist Klaus Stöhr assumes that the corona pandemic in Germany will be over after the winter. “From spring we will experience a dramatic relaxation of the situation,” said Stöhr the “Münchner Merkur” (Saturday). “The pandemic will then be over. In the summer, despite a few infections, it will be absolutely normal again.”
Experts see the end of the pandemic next year
The rising number of corona infections has so far been “an expected development” and “no cause for concern,” said Stöhr. However, one has to worry about the more than four million unvaccinated over 60-year-olds in Germany: “They are still fully susceptible to the virus,” said Stöhr. “That is enough in winter for a dramatic increase in severe courses and admissions to hospitals. One has to worry about that and improve vaccination progress here.” Therefore, booster vaccinations and a better vaccination rate in nursing should “become priority”.
And the immunologist Christine Falk also said in an interview with: “I actually see that we will be through ‘next year.” The question, however, is at what price. “Nevertheless, I have to say that numbers with over 10,000 per day are something that worries me because we can assume that there will be people who become more seriously ill after all.” Falk appealed to be vaccinated.
The Secretary General of the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (DIVI), Florian Hoffmann, expects vaccines for infants from 2022 as well. “We firmly assume that from next year there will be vaccines for all age groups, even approved up to newborns,” said the pediatrician in the newspapers of the Funke media group (Thursday). Various studies by Biontech and Moderna are currently running, some even with babies. He expects a vaccine for children under the age of twelve by the end of this year, says Hoffmann. This group is expected to receive a reduced vaccine dose.
But Gassen also said that the number of infections would rise again in autumn. The number of serious illnesses will, however, remain well below that of last winter.
The seven-day value of Covid-19 hospital admissions per 100,000 inhabitants has been rising slowly for weeks. On Wednesday, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) gave it 1.81. The previous high was around 15.5 around Christmas time. A nationwide threshold, from when the situation becomes critical, is not provided for the incidence of hospitalization, among other things because of large regional differences. However, the value only reflects the infection situation with a noticeable delay, as an average of ten days elapse between an infection and hospitalization.
Discussion about booster vaccinations
In the meantime, many federal states have started booster vaccinations for the elderly and immunocompromised. As a rule, it is the third corona injection for them, to be administered after six months at the earliest. Medical President Klaus Reinhardt criticized the rushing ahead without a corresponding recommendation from the Standing Vaccination Commission (Stiko). In theory, there is a lot to be said for such a so-called booster vaccination, Reinhardt told the editorial network Germany (Thursday). However, there was still a lack of meaningful studies as to whether, for whom and when it was necessary. “So politicians have stoked expectations among patients that many doctors do not want to serve without a scientifically based vaccination recommendation.”
Stiko is planning a recommendation as soon as possible, as its boss Thomas Mertens told the German press agency on Wednesday. The processing of the available data is in full swing. However, he cannot yet commit to an exact date.
The Greens health expert Janosch Dahmen accused the federal government of an unclear and belated strategy for booster vaccinations against Covid-19. “A right to booster vaccinations was anchored in the new vaccination ordinance, but the specific vaccination strategy is completely unclear and, even in view of the fourth wave in the summer, has not been prepared,” he told the Düsseldorf “Rheinische Post” (Thursday). “The federal government failed to collect systematically data for Germany at an early stage, for whom and when so-called booster vaccinations are essential.”
The SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach told the newspaper: “I fear that many are now being given a third vaccination who do not benefit from it, while those who urgently need it do not get it.”
What does 2G bring?
The Bonn virologist Hendrik Streeck spoke out against “2G” restrictions, ie offers only for vaccinated and convalescent people. This was “neither socially nor medically sensible,” he told the “Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung” (Thursday). This kind of restriction will do little. “It is not the case that people who have not been vaccinated or recovered just sit at home alone in frustration and no longer have any social life,” he said. “We would only have more uncontrolled and uncontrollable outbreaks in the private sector, which are then also not tested.”
At the weekend, Hamburg introduced the so far nationwide unique “2G” model: organizers and hosts can only let in vaccinated and recovered guests and are then largely exempt from the previous corona restrictions. Alternatively, they can also let the tested people in, but with a limited number of guests and other requirements.
