Recently, the incidences had continued to rise, Germany already imagined itself in the fourth corona wave. But now the number of cases is suddenly falling again. Why is that?
For the first time in two months, the seven-day incidence of corona infections fell on two days in a row. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) gave the value on Wednesday with 82.7 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants within one week (Tuesday 83.8; Monday 84.3; Wednesday of the previous week: 75.7). Most recently, the incidence fell twice in a row at the beginning of July.
The number of reproductions, which is decisive for the rate of spread of the virus, also gives hope. The seven-day R-value has recently returned to below 1 (Wednesday: 0.97), previously it was sometimes significantly higher for many weeks. The value indicates how many other people an infected person can mathematically infect. If it stays below 1 for a longer period of time, the pandemic will subside.
Declining case numbers may only be a snapshot
The number of new infections transmitted within one day increased marginally compared to the previous week. The health authorities in Germany reported 13,565 new corona infections to the RKI within one day. A week ago the value was 13,531 infections.
It is unclear whether the positive development is just a snapshot or a trend reversal. Also about possible reasons – for example vaccination progress, contact behavior of citizens, travel events – can only be speculated for the time being. There has recently been no decline in PCR tests – on the contrary. According to the laboratory association ALM, ten percent more tests were evaluated in the week up to September 5 than in the previous week.
There are still large east-west differences in the seven-day incidences. In Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Thuringia they are below 40, in Hesse, North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate above 100.
Occupancy of hospitals set new standards
On Tuesday, the Bundestag decided that the number of corona patients in the clinics should be the most important yardstick, so far politics had mainly been based on the number of infections. The number of corona patients admitted to clinics per 100,000 inhabitants within seven days was given by the RKI in its status report on Wednesday at 1.79 (Tuesday 1.69). The previous high was around 15.5 around Christmas time. A nationwide threshold value from when the situation can be viewed critically is not provided for the incidence of hospitalization, among other things because of large regional differences.
According to the RKI, an average of about ten days elapse between an infection and hospitalization, so this value reflects the infection situation with a noticeable delay.
According to the new information, 35 deaths were recorded across Germany within 24 hours. A week ago there were 23 deaths. The RKI has counted 4,030,681 detected infections with Sars-CoV-2 since the beginning of the pandemic. The actual total number is likely to be significantly higher, as many infections are not detected.
The RKI stated the number of those who had recovered at 3,793,000. The number of people who died with or with a proven infection with Sars-CoV-2 rose to 92,448.
