In no other federal state is vaccinated against Corona as little as in Saxony. Nevertheless, one district currently has a top incidence: Bautzen. Why is that?
The vaccination rate across the country is nowhere near as high as experts would like it to be. But nowhere are so few syringes used as in the east – especially Saxony. The state is almost 20 percentage points behind the front runner Bremen. And the number of corona cases is rising again. Only in the Bautzen district are the numbers surprising: the incidence, which was 18.8 on Friday, is one of the lowest in the whole of the country. How can that be?
At the end of last year, the situation in Saxony came to a head and the number of infections exploded. The situation in the Bautzen district was particularly critical. In the meantime, the seven-day incidence value was more than 500 new infections per 100,000 people. According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), 41.9 percent of the population are now considered fully vaccinated. That is little. For comparison: the nationwide vaccination quota is currently 62 percent.
Do those who have recovered ensure a low incidence?
So how can it be that the incidence is so low right now? Could the many people who have recovered, almost 27,000 people, have a positive impact on the corona situation? Alexander Dalpke, head of the Institute for Medical Microbiology and Virology at the Medical Faculty of the TU Dresden, is not convinced of this. Compared to the “Sächsische Zeitung” he said: “The number of people who have recovered is not enough to keep the incidence low.”
Even if you add up those who have recovered and those who have been vaccinated, that is not enough to achieve a herd immunity of 85 to 90 percent. However, this is necessary to contain the delta variant of the virus, explains the virologist. The proportion of people who have recovered in Bautzen is not sufficient for such an effect. Especially since it does not make up for the low vaccination rate in the region.
Bautzen could soon be concerned about vaccination rates
Instead, it could be that the holidays made their contribution to the fact that the corona numbers in Bautzen are currently so low. In early July, when they went on vacation, the incidences were very low. This is still having an impact, says Christian Jassoy, acting head of research and teaching at the Institute for Medical Microbiology and Virology in Leipzig. As a result, where there are fewer sources of infection, the virus initially spreads more slowly than in a place with many infected people, he explains to the newspaper.
In other words: what is already visible elsewhere could only really start now in Bautzen. “The data suggest that the number of infections in the region simply increases a little later,” says Alexander Dalpke. “The holidays in Saxony have only now come to an end; the infections imported by travelers are only now slowly coming to light. “
It cannot be conclusively clarified why Bautzen’s incidence is currently so low. Much remains speculation. It could also be that some people would now act more cautiously due to the high number of cases and deaths in the last wave. But the two experts are certain of one point: the number of infections will also rise again in Bautzen. Jassoy fears that the district could soon be in a worse position than many other regions. He sees the low vaccination rate as the main sticking point. “The intensive care units,” also predicts Dalpke, “will fill up with people who have not been vaccinated”.
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