The growth in incidence has accelerated in Germany. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) reports more than 19,500 new infections. Apparently, the seasonal effect is taking effect: the numbers rose sharply around this time last year.
According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the number of corona cases in Germany could grow dynamically in the coming period. “It is to be expected that the rise in the number of cases will accelerate in the further course of autumn and winter,” writes the institute, which appeared on Thursday evening.
The nationwide seven-day incidence of new corona infections rose sharply again on Friday and is now 95.1. The RKI reported 19,572 new infections within one day. The previous day the seven-day incidence was 85.6; a week ago it was 68.7.
Even intensive care physicians are sounding the alarm because many intensive care beds could no longer be operated due to a lack of nursing staff. The German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive and Emergency Medicine () announced on Thursday evening that “a noticeable restriction in the care of the population can be expected” in the coming period. Currently, 22,207 intensive care beds are reported as operable, at the beginning of the year there were 26,475. The past few months have led to a deterioration in mood and further dismissals of regular nurses, according to the Divi.
“A foreseeable heavy autumn and winter wave” with many Covid-19 patients, but also those with other respiratory infections such as flu, could bring intensive medicine in Germany “again to and beyond its limits”, Stefan Kluge, director of the Clinic for Intensive Care Medicine, was quoted as saying at the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf.
More outbreaks in old people’s and nursing homes
According to the RKI report, more and more outbreaks have become known in medical facilities and in old people’s and nursing homes. For the first time since the week of May 3rd to 9th, the seven-day incidence in people over 90 increased last week to over 50. With hygiene measures and increasing vaccination coverage, such outbreaks have decreased significantly, but they continue to occur and also affect vaccinated people, it said. Very old people are particularly at risk of suffering severe and fatal courses in the event of a corona infection.
In general, the RKI writes that it is “expected” that more vaccination breakthroughs will be recorded over time. These are diseases in completely vaccinated people with corona detection by a PCR test. This is because more and more people are vaccinated and the virus is currently spreading again. That sounds paradoxical at first, but it is a simple calculation: the higher the number of cases, the more people come into contact with the virus. This increases the likelihood of infections in general and vaccination breakthroughs. This is particularly problematic for unvaccinated people. According to the RKI, severe disease courses are very rare in vaccinated people. who had to be treated in the intensive care unit due to a corona infection in the past few weeks were not vaccinated.
Stiko recommends boosters for people over the age of 70 and those in need of care
A high proportion of infections after a single vaccination with Johnson & Johnson was noticed in Germany. The Standing Vaccination Commission (Stiko) now recommends that people who have received this vaccine, regardless of age, improve their protection with an additional dose of mRNA vaccine. The Stiko also advises booster vaccinations with an mRNA vaccine for people with immunodeficiency, people in need of care in homes, people over 70 years of age, medical and nursing staff.
According to the RKI report, significantly higher incidences than seniors were recorded by younger age groups, in which the vaccination rates are lower, as in the previous weeks. In the case of children and adolescents between 10 and 14 years of age, there were 182 infections per 100,000 inhabitants last week. But even in middle-aged people (35 to 44) the incidences were above average.
“With the number of cases now increasing significantly, the basic risk of infection and your own contribution to the spread of Sars-CoV-2 should be reduced regardless of the vaccination, convalescence or test status,” the RKI appealed. All people were called on to continue to comply with the rules of conduct to protect against infection (distance, hygiene, mask, ventilation, corona warning app). According to the RKI recommendation, unnecessary close contacts should be reduced and “situations, especially indoors, where so-called super-spreading events can occur” should be avoided as far as possible.
Last year, the number of cases rose from October
warned of rising case numbers in October and at that time referred to the incidence in eastern German federal states, which picked up again regardless of the end of the holiday. “I think there are now signs of the autumn and winter waves that we will probably see again in October,” the scientist from the Berlin Charité said at the end of September in the “Coronavirus Update” podcast at NDR-Info. At that time, Drosten called for faster vaccination progress.
Last autumn there was an exponential growth in the number of cases from mid-October. At the beginning of November 2020, the “Lockdown Light” came into force, the aim of which was to slow down the increase in the number of cases. The number of cases then stagnated at a higher level and began to rise again in December. It is now known that seasonal factors – such as staying in closed rooms – promote the spread of the coronavirus.
Situation not directly comparable with 2020
However, the current situation cannot be compared one-to-one with that of a year ago – for several reasons. Delta is currently dominated by a highly contagious coronavirus variant. Last year, there were also no vaccines available that offer very high protection against severe disease. that the hospitalization rate will replace the incidence as the most important factor in assessing the incidence of infections. Nonetheless, many experts emphasize that the incidence will continue to be important because it is the most up-to-date indicator for assessing the incidence of infection.
“The actual 4th wave has now begun and continues to pick up speed,” wrote Divi expert Christian Karagiannidis on Twitter. There is still a very close correlation between incidence and new admissions to intensive care units. According to the Divi intensive care register, the number of Covid 19 patients there has now risen to around 1,540.
Leif Erik Sander, head of the Infection Immunology and Vaccine Research research group at the Charité, warned on Twitter that the vaccination rate should be higher. With a view to the situation in the intensive care units, where more Covid 19 patients are being treated again, he advised, among other things, booster vaccinations for vulnerable groups and maintaining distance and hygiene rules.
So far, more than 1.5 million people in Germany have received a so-called booster vaccination. 66.1 percent of the population are fully vaccinated. 69.1 percent received at least one vaccination. Other EU countries, including Spain and Portugal, have significantly higher vaccination rates in some cases.
