Researchers at TU Berlin expect an exponential increase in hospital numbers by October at the latest. According to the model, a fourth wave hardly seems to be prevented.
Based on modeling, a group of scientists from the Technical University of Berlin (TU) is expecting a fourth wave that will not pass hospitals either. “According to our simulations, an exponential increase in hospital numbers will start in October. If the current development continues, this will start even earlier and then intensify again in October”This is what the group around the mobility researcher Kai Nagel said to the Federal Ministry of Education and Research.
The team rates the increase in seven-day incidences as due to the high relative increases “unsettling”. Only if the vaccines against the delta variant worked significantly better than currently known or if a vaccination rate of 95 percent is achieved will a fourth wave in the simulations fail to appear. The model yields “under all conditions that currently appear realistic, a fourth wave among adults, which will be intensified with the relocation of activities indoors in autumn.”
Tests in schools
According to the report, the simulations for schools show that ventilation systems and the widespread use of rapid and / or PCR tests could reduce the infection dynamics. If such measures were implemented consistently, school closings or alternating lessons would not be necessary, it said. The two rapid tests per week, which are currently typical, are, however, by no means sufficient without additional measures.
According to the model, if the schools were opened after the summer vacation without protective measures, there would be a wave of infections among schoolchildren, which would lead to a wave in adults. “Conversely, a wave of infections among adults also leads to a wave of infections among students”, write the researchers.
Saxony’s Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer (CDU) spoke out against renewed school closings – and in favor of vaccinating children and adolescents. Open schools and kindergartens are a question of educational equity, but also the mental health of children and families, he said “Rheinische Post” (Saturday).
The Standing Vaccination Commission (Stiko) does not recommend corona vaccination across the board for the age group of 12 to 17 year olds and points out that corona infections in children are usually mild.
Modeling fraught with uncertainties
Scientists around the world are working on Covid 19 simulations using different approaches. These are based on certain assumptions and are subject to uncertainties. The team around Professor Nagel uses anonymized Berlin cell phone data to model the infection process. According to him, the results can at least be transferred to other large cities.
The seven-day incidence of corona infections in Germany has risen for the tenth day in a row. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) gave the value on Saturday morning at 9.4 – the day before it was 8.6, at the latest low on July 6, it was 4.9. Overall, the health authorities reported 1608 new infections to the RKI within one day, as can be seen from the figures that reflect the status of the RKI dashboard from 4:05 a.m. For comparison: a week ago it was 952.
Employer President Rainer Dulger warned against a decrease in the rate of vaccination in Germany. “We have to be careful not to gamble away what we have achieved”said the President of the Confederation of German Employers’ Associations (BDA) of the German Press Agency in Berlin. “We have to keep vaccinating, vaccinating, vaccinating so that the situation can stabilize further.”
The corona incidence, i.e. the number of new infections per 100,000 inhabitants in one week, has been rising again for almost two weeks, most recently in the city-states of Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen particularly significantly. In terms of vaccinations, the first countries had recently reported significant slumps.
Dulger said employers and unions had appealed to workers to continue to accept vaccination and testing offers, thereby contributing to high vaccination coverage. “We social partners are confident that with a joint effort we can make the national vaccination campaign a success and achieve a high level of protection.”
According to the RKI, 22 deaths were recorded within 24 hours across Germany on Saturday. A week ago it was 35. The RKI counted 3,743,389 detected infections with Sars-CoV-2 since the beginning of the pandemic. The actual total number is likely to be significantly higher, as many infections are not detected. In the future, when assessing the situation, greater consideration will be given to the incidence.
