Influenza viruses have recently played hardly any role in the pandemic, and that could soon look different again. Experts are already talking about a comeback of the influenza virus and are expecting a heavy wave.
The good old flu doesn’t have it easy. Since Sars-CoV-2 has been circulating, it has hardly played a role. Last winter, fewer people contracted the influenza virus than in Germany since the data was recorded. The flu wave was almost completely absent, a side effect of the corona measures, lockdowns, compulsory masks, distance and hygiene measures. This winter, however, the situation seems to be different. Experts speak of a possible return of the flu and warn of several problems.
The flu season usually starts in early October and lasts until mid-May. The viruses are also currently circulating. At first glance, however, the number of infections is not very alarming. According to data from the EU health authority ECDC and the World Health Organization (WHO), in the last week of 2021, just 43 people had to be treated in intensive care due to severe flu – across Europe. Although this is an increase, there was only one severe case of flu in an intensive care unit throughout December 2020; but in the same period of 2018, i.e. before the pandemic, it was still more than 400 a week.
Severe flu outbreak feared
For Germany, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) reported 151 confirmed cases of influenza in the first week of the year. There was not a single one in the same period last year. The RKI writes of an increase in relation to the current development, but this is still too small to speak of an incipient flu wave. But despite the currently low numbers, experts warn against underestimating the risk of flu. The influenza has not disappeared, says the head of hospital hygiene at the University Hospital Eppendorf, Johannes Knobloch. Rather, it was kept in check by the applicable corona measures.
Several experts fear that the next heavy wave is already in sight. According to Knobloch, this is conceivable after the end of the corona pandemic and the mask requirement. Jana Husemann, chairwoman of the Hamburg General Practitioners’ Association, fears that this will happen in the coming year. Among other things, children could be affected “who have had little or no contact with flu viruses”.
Long flu season
ECDC experts don’t have to look that far into the future. If they have their way, the influenza virus could cause significant problems in the coming weeks and months. The report even mentions a possible threat of a “twin epidemic,” which could put undue pressure on already overburdened healthcare systems. Figures from neighboring France indicate that three regions, including Paris, are facing a flu epidemic, and others are on the way, according to the French Ministry of Health last week. According to this, 72 people in France have already fallen seriously ill with the flu in the current season, and six died as a result of the infection.
The ECDC experts also fear that the current increase in the number of cases could be a foretaste of the return of the influenza virus. The possible start, as Pasi Penttinen from the agency told Reuters, of an unusually long flu season that could last into the summer. “As we start lifting all measures, the big concern I have about the flu is that we may deviate from normal seasonal patterns because we’ve had such a long period of time that the virus has been around in Europe Population almost non-circulating,” he said. According to the Robert Koch Institute, before the pandemic, the annual flu wave usually started in January and lasted three to four months.
Vaccination is one way to protect yourself against severe influenza. Former Health Minister Jens Spahn announced at the time that 27 million doses of vaccine were made available at the beginning of the season. That is another five million doses more than were vaccinated in 2020. How well the current vaccine works will only become apparent after the season is over. Since the vaccines are adjusted annually, the protective effect varies. This is mainly explained by the fact that at the time of production it is not 100% clear which virus lines will be predominant. This work is currently made more difficult by the small number of cases of infection and the associated manageable amount of data, which is used to decide on the composition of the vaccine.
Source: , , , , dpa
Source From: Stern
