The rapid easing of the corona measures – who wouldn’t want that in Germany? Especially since many neighboring European countries such as Denmark have been pushing ahead. But is that really reasonable? Relax or wait, there are good arguments for both.
It sounds crazy: While the seven-day incidence is climbing new highs every day, the number of new infections is making the omicron wall grow ever steeper and the Corona warning app is permanently red for hundreds of thousands of people, many countries are relaxing Europe their Corona measures. And in Germany, too, the debate is picking up speed as to whether ghost games, 2G in retail and contact tracing in restaurants are not slow enough. Relax or wait? There are good arguments for both.
What is the starting position?
The bare figures resemble a horror film. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) is currently reporting 236,120 new infections within 24 hours, a new high in the pandemic. The seven-day incidence also reached a new record of 1283.2. However, and that is the difference to the previous corona waves: The health system is far from being overloaded. The nationwide hospitalization rate is 4.77. According to the Divi intensive care register, 2,307 patients are currently being treated in intensive care units. Up to 5,500 cases were registered in intensive care units at the time of the corona highs in the waves before. One has to state very clearly that the health care system is not overloaded at all at the moment, “thank God”, said the FDP health politician Andrew Ullmann on the ntv broadcaster. “It’s looking good at the moment,” said the CEO of the German Hospital Society, Gerald Gass, of the “Rheinische Post”.
The development makes it clear: omicron is indeed extremely contagious, but usually causes a mild course of the disease.
Why are our European neighbors relaxing?
In short: because they feel they can afford it. Denmark, for example, argues that Omikron is not pushing the healthcare system to its limits. This is also due to the high vaccination rate compared to Germany. There, 81 percent of the population is fully vaccinated, 61 percent boosted. In Germany, the comparable rates are 74 and 53 percent. In addition, there are still too many people, especially in the over 60 age group, who are not vaccinated at all.
What does politics say?
A lot. And again a lot of confusion. Federal Minister of Justice Marco Buschmann announced that many corona restrictions would be lifted in March. Bavaria’s Prime Minister Markus Söder is more specific: “We should take consistent steps to open up now,” demands Söder today in the “Bild”. And brings up the nationwide abolition of the 2G rule in retail, the cancellation of the obligation to test in restaurants and an increase in the upper limits for stadiums. The designated FDP General Secretary Bijan Djir-Sarai also calls for an “exit strategy” with clearly defined opening steps. His party colleague, Deputy FDP Chairman Wolfgang Kubicki, goes even further: “If there is no objective reason, the measures must end, and not by a specific date, but immediately,” Kubicki told the “Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland” and added: ” I think we’re closer to that point than many think.”
But the Chancellor sees things differently. He first wants to wait for the apex of the omicron wave, which the RKI predicts for mid-February. Only after this peak could there be decisions about easing steps, said Olaf Scholz in the “heute journal”. “But unfortunately we haven’t got there yet.” Others, such as the Prime Minister of Baden-Württemberg, Winfried Kretschmann, are even more cautious and only intend to ease the restrictions after Easter. There’s still a good ten weeks to go before then.
What does science advise?
As in politics, there are differentiated approaches with regard to possible easing. “Planning an exit strategy in order to have it ready later is good and sensible. But politics shouldn’t rush anything,” says virologist Friedemann Weber from the University of Giessen. Max Geraedts, who heads the Institute for Health Services Research and Clinical Epidemiology at the Philipps University in Marburg, disagrees. The discussion sends the message “far too early” that the pandemic is already over”.
Germany’s best-known virologist, Christian Drosten from the Berlin Charité, also advises restraint. He only sees a time threshold and a “planning horizon” for the relaxation of the Corona situation in the Easter holidays. Drosten’s colleague Klaus Stöhr, long-time SARS research coordinator at the World Health Organization (WHO), has a completely different opinion: “I can no longer understand that Easter is now seen as the end point of the conservative measures, so that they say we can’t ease any loosening until April at the earliest perform. It just doesn’t add up anymore.”
What is the reason for the reluctance?
As is usually the case when it comes to Germany, with the unsatisfactory vaccination rate – especially for people over 60 years of age it is low. In addition: “There are still many unanswered questions about the omicron variant, so I advise caution,” said virologist Friedemann Weber. The infectiologist Jana Schroeder (Foundation Mathias-Spital, Rheine) warns: “Depending on further developments, further restrictions might even make sense at first,” said Schroeder when asked by the DPA. “We have to show some humility about all the things we don’t know about Covid-19, especially through Omikron.” She referred, for example, to Long Covid, the consequences of possible repeated infections and the limited treatment options.
Can the healthcare system actually be overburdened?
That’s not out of the question. So far, omicron has been particularly rampant among children and adolescents aged 5 to 14 years and significantly less among people over 60 years of age. Around 3 million people over 60 are still unvaccinated. Due to the increasing risk of omicron infection on the one hand and the increase in the probability of severe courses in elderly people on the other hand, there could well be an increase in corona-related hospital admissions. Not only inpatient, but also outpatient care could be overloaded, especially if the high infection rate also leads to a loss of nursing staff.
So what now: loosen or not? And if so: where to start?
As so often in the discussions of recent months, the answer to this is ultimately a matter of discretion and must be given by the political leadership. It seems reasonable to focus solely on the infection process and the number of cases in your own country and not to be blinded by the examples of some European neighbors – as difficult as that may be in view of the maskless people in Kolding and Copenhagen. The framework conditions in this country are simply too different for this due to the faltering vaccination campaign.
Orientation towards specific parameters also seems sensible. But instead of the incidence, which has not recently drawn a realistic picture given the scarcity of PCR tests, more weight should be attached to the occupancy of hospitals with infected patients and only consider easing if this number continues to decrease.
But one or the other measure should actually be put to the test, as Federal Minister of Economics Christian Lindner (FDP) brought up for discussion on RTL. Lindner suggested the nationwide abolition of the 2G rule in retail, which Schleswig-Holstein and Hesse announced and other federal states have already implemented due to court orders. The 2G rule is causing economic damage without making an effective contribution to combating the pandemic. “And that’s why 2G is not required in retail, the mask is,” says Lindner.
From the point of view of the virologist Weber, wearing a mask remains essential: “It is a relatively well-tolerated but very effective measure – you should continue to wear a mask, especially in sensitive places, such as indoors. Or in situations with many unvaccinated people.”
Source: Stern
