The study also raises questions about the link between demographics and the economy, since there will be fewer contributions to the retirement system: the pandemic anticipated the expected slowdown in workforce growth by a decade.
“The first impact of the pandemic is the increase in mortality and, as a consequence, the sharp reduction in life expectancy. 4.4 years of life expectancy have been lost in 22 months. That means a loss of life of four months for each month vivid”the researcher told the economic newspaper Valor.
The data used is the official data from the State Transparency Portal, based on births and deaths.
Camarano, coordinator of Research Studies on Gender Equality, Race and Generations of the governmental IPEA, explained that mortality, with the pandemic, became an important variable of population aging, taking into account that births had already been declining.
“The population reduction was planned for the mid-2030s, but with the pandemic this must happen in this decade. The reduction of the population in general and of the economically active population begins,” says the study.
The economically active population should increase from 136 million inhabitants in 2020 to 142.7 million in 2025, with the beginning of the downward curve of 139.8 million in 2030 and 133.1 million in 2035.
“We anticipate a slowdown in the growth of the labor force in nearly ten years. The trend will be for there to be more parents and fewer children, and that will have to be taken into account for the pension system account,” he said.
Meanwhile, the demographer Jose Eustaquio Diniz Alves former professor at the National School of Statistical Sciences, said that the movement is similar throughout the world. “The pandemic is not going to change the demographic course but it will have to anticipate it. We do not know when the pandemic will end but mortality will be reduced after it. I do not believe that there is a birth boom but that women who postponed their reproductive decisions will resume their plans ” , he emphasized.
Brazil, the main Latin American economy, will have, according to Diniz Alvesfewer people entering the labor market with the number of elderly people increasing, impacting the retirement and health system.
Source: Ambito
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