He Supreme Court of Brazil will deliver this Thursday the last two votes In the trial of the former president Jair Bolsonaroaccused of trying to organize a coup d’etat with the aim of staying in power despite his 2022 electoral defeat facing Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The final result could lead to a condemnation of sending it to prison In a few weeks, with a strong impact on the Brazilian political scenario.
So far, Three of the five magistrates have already votedwith a partial result of 2-1 in favor of guilt in the five charges charged. The first to rule this Thursday will be the judge Lucia Carmen. Your vote, in case of coinciding with the rapporteur of the case, Alexandre de MoraesI would tip the balance towards the conviction. The judge Cristiano Zanin It will be the last to issue your position.
The prosecutors Bolsonaro of five crimes accuse: Coup d’etat attempt, integration into an armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the Democratic Law rule, in addition to participation in violent events and threats against state’s assets.
The above votes
The trajectory of the lucia judge shows that he accompanied De Moraes in almost all decisions since The process began in 2023. Meanwhile, Zanin, former lula, supported the rapporteur in most convictions, although he disagreed in the severity of the penalties applied to others involved in the plot.
Wednesday, the judge Luiz Fux He surprised to dissent with his colleagues and said there were no sufficient evidence against Bolsonaro in any of the positions. He presented his reasoning for more than 13 hours, without receiving objections despite the disapproval looks from the court.
In parallel, Fux voted against two allies of the former president, the exedecán Mauro Cid And the former cabinet chief Walter Braga Nettowho were accused of violent abolition of the rule of democratic law.
Possible consequences
If Bolsonaro is guilty, on Friday a specific debate about the judgment. That scenario could accelerate pressures within its space to designate a political heir Able to compete with Lula in the next elections. I could also promote allied legislators to promote a amnesty In Congress.
It should be remembered that in 2023 the highest electoral court in Brazil alreadyE prohibited postulated until 2030considering it responsible for a abuse of power.
In previous instances, FUX had claimed that the case be dismissed due to lack of jurisdiction, which opens the possibility that Bolsonaro uses that argument in future Appeals and make him a political support point before his followers.
According to specialists, jurisprudence indicates that in order for the former president to appeal to the plenary session of the Supreme Court – integrated by 11 judges – they need At least two dissident votes In this trial. The decision of lucia and Zanin, therefore, will define not only the judicial future of Bolsonaro, but also the immediate course of Brazilian politics.
Source: Ambito
