After the record number of new infections in the pandemic was recorded on Wednesday, the experts assume a further increase in the incidence of infections, “which is driven by the opening steps of March 5th and February 19th and the increasing dominance of the omicron subtype BA.2 will”, according to the current forecast.
This assumes an “acceleration of the increase in cases observed over the past week”, which is causally linked to the extensive lifting of all protective measures to contain the virus last weekend. As a result, “the previous high for the seven-day incidence of 2,630 on February 1, 2022 is likely to be exceeded,” the panel suspects. Specifically, there could be a seven-day incidence of around or even over 3,000 in Austria next Wednesday (March 16). The calculated confidence interval is between 2,398 and 3,948, the point estimate at 2,992 new infections within seven days per 100,000 inhabitants. For comparison: the seven-day incidence in Austria is currently 2,559.4.
Noticeable effects on hospitals
Vorarlberg (between 2,800 and 4,700), Lower Austria (between 2,700 and 4,400) and Tyrol (between 2,600 and 4,200) have to adjust to the highest seven-day incidence. It will be lowest in Vienna (between 2,000 and 3,300) and Carinthia (between 2,200 and 3,600).
This development will – the experts are right – have noticeable effects on the hospitals, where 2,582 Covid patients are currently being treated in normal wards and 182 in the intensive care unit (ICU). Next Wednesday, the number of inpatients with Covid patients in the normal care area could rise to over 3,000, in two weeks in the worst case even to almost 4,000. The confidence interval for March 16 is between 2562 and 3218, for March 23 between 2591 and 3896. 2,877 and 3,177 people in need of care on normal wards are accepted as the respective point estimates.
The situation in the ICU area, on the other hand, is likely to remain relatively stable. Between 177 and 236 seriously ill people are predicted for the Covid intensive care units next Wednesday, between 176 and 280 for the following Wednesday. The respective point estimate is 204 or 222. That would be a moderate increase in the number of seriously ill patients compared to the current situation and far from the relief that the staff on the ICU wards long for.
Source: Nachrichten
