It is more infectious than previously assumed, which leads to increased spread. In his model calculation, that subtype of the virus is now the “dominant variant,” he informed the country in the situation analysis that takes place every Thursday.
Numbers will continue to rise
According to Popper, the greater spread than predicted will ensure that the seven-day incidence will continue to rise in Upper Austria next week. Thursday afternoon it was 2774.9. It is becoming apparent that the peak will only be reached in calendar week 12 (from March 21). Two weeks ago, the simulation researcher still assumed that the seven-day incidence would drop to around 1,500 by mid-March.
However, his upwardly updated forecast should not have any serious consequences for the hospitals. In any case, Popper expects the occupancy of the intensive care beds “to remain stable and at a low level as a central guideline,” said the office of Governor Thomas Stelzer (ÖVP). However, March remains a tricky month for the normal wards. Because of the renewed increase in incidence, the expert predicted a coverage of up to 450 normal beds. Relaxation is not expected until April.
Source: Nachrichten
