According United StatesIn recent days, Russia has expanded its air and naval operations in the country in the face of resistance from Ukrainian forces, which continue to hold back the enemy advance.
“What we see is a desperate Russian attempt to regain momentum,” said a senior official of the Pentagonwhile Russian forces were still blockaded 15 km to the north-west and 30 km to the east of Kyivtarget of regular bombing.
The capture of the Ukrainian capital seemed to be the main objective of the Russians when they crossed the border, on February 24, with a view to bringing down the government of the president Volodymyr Zelensky.
But, according to the unanimous opinion of Western experts, the 150,000 to 200,000 men mobilized by Vladimir Putin failed to enter the war by assuming weak resistance from their adversariesa failure of Russian intelligence, as they neglected their logistical needs.
Very important tactical gap, the Russian military failed to establish its air superiority in the Ukrainian sky.
What’s more, “There is a lack among the Russians of a real policy of command and conduct”emphasizes a former French military officer, noting a lack of coordination between air and ground forces, and Russian bombardments with little precision.
Although the number of military deaths is impossible to verify, the calculations are impressive: Russia would have lost more than 7,000 soldiers in a month, according to intelligence sources cited by The New York Times. That is a figure greater than the combined US losses in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Ukraine, for its part, stated on March 12 that it had lost 1,300 soldiers, a figure that is undoubtedly lower than reality.
In the absence of significant progress, the Russian offensive appears to focus on terrorizing and demoralizing Ukrainians, 10 million of whom have fled their homes.
“The more the Russian infantry stagnates, the more the army increases the brutality of its actions and the disproportionate use of aerial weapons,” a European source close to the military tells AFP. NATO. “Putin needs a deal, and therefore he needs victories,” he added.
In the absence of taking control of the cities of Ukraine, the Russians bombard them incessantly in the northeast, as in Kharkivthe second largest city in the country, and at the same time exerts constant pressure on those in the east and south.
Mikolaiv (southwest), last strategic point before the port of Odessacontinues to be attacked.
War in Ukraine Mariupol hospital
Photo: Blaze Trend
On Mariupol (south), a large port city that has been besieged and bombed for weeks, some 100,000 inhabitants are still stuck in ruins with corpses and lack everything they need.
A revealing fierceness of the strategic weight of the city for the Russians. Seizing Mariupol enables them to establish a land bridge between their forces in crimeain the southwest, and the pro-Russian separatist territories of the donbas in the East. In this region, Russia hopes to encircle Ukrainian forces to cut them off from the rest of the country.
“The next episode of that conflict may be even more unpleasant as it could turn into a war of attrition, with increased bombing of civilian areas. The Russian forces will probably try to compensate for their low results with more destruction.“, considers Michael Kofman, of the American think tank CNA.
In the absence of a negotiated solution, “war of attrition is the most feasible possibility, with siege tactics and reinforced bombardment, as in Aleppo or Grozny“, says William Alberque, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
Alberque warns of the temptation to force Ukraine to accept a ceasefire under the pressure of Western public opinion, horrified by the images of the destruction and the situation of the trapped civilian population.
“Our desire to end the suffering of the Ukrainians could help the Russians. They will use a ceasefire to rebuild their forces,” he told AFP, fearing that the conflict will last forever.
Source: Ambito
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