Some 93 million voters will be able to vote in this referendumpromoted by the 68-year-old president and in which a low turnout is expected.
The consultation was incorporated into the Constitution in 2019 at the initiative of López Obrador, arguing that “the people put and the people take away.” It can be convened for this mechanism in the middle of the government period.
Mexicans will respond on the card if they want the president to be “revoked for loss of confidence” or to complete his six years.
Some eleven million signatures were delivered to the National Electoral Institute (INE) to organize the plebiscite, the majority of pro-government supporters.
For the result to be binding, 40% of the voters (37 million) must participate, but the turnout would be less than 20%.anticipates Luis Ugalde, former president of the INE.
López Obrador, of the party Brunetteannounced that he will annul his vote by writing “long live Emiliano Zapata!”, for the revolutionary leader.
López Obrador was elected with 53% of the vote, promising a ‘revolution’ aimed at ending deep inequalities and corruption in Mexico, with 126 million inhabitants (44% in poverty).
The leftist president maintains an approval of 58%according to an average of surveys by the consulting firm Oraculus, far from the initial 80% but above its predecessors halfway.
A confessed “stubborn”, López Obrador was not obliged to submit to the referendum, but he believes that it is the antidote to bad governments.
The president, who offers a press conference of up to three hours from Monday to Friday, bases his popularity on programs for impoverished sectors (23,000 million dollars in 2022 – 6.4% of the budget) and policies such as the improvement of the minimum wage ( $265 per month).
He also inaugurated a new airport for Mexico City, after canceling a project by Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) -his predecessor-, and promotes several mega-projects rejected by environmentalists and opponentswho brand him as “populist” and “authoritarian”.
At the same time, it applies orthodox policies as a staunch defense of austerity and fiscal balance and programs against indebtedness.
But his plans suffered the onslaught of the coronavirus pandemic, which in 2020 caused Mexico, the second largest economy in Latin America, to contract 8.4%. In 2021 it rebounded 5% and this year it would grow only 3.4%.
The continuity of López Obrador is not at risk “at all. On the contrary, (the referendum) could give air to some of his projects,” estimates political analyst Martha Anaya.
In addition to an annualized inflation of 7.3% as of February (the highest in two decades), the president faces critical points such as criminal violence, which has left some 340,000 dead and thousands missing since 2006, when the country’s anti-drug fight was militarized. . In 2021 there were 33,308 homicides.
The violence also affects journalists, with some 150 murders of professionals since 2000, eight of which this year alone.
For the writer and analyst Pedro Miguel, the president tries to crystallize the constitutional precept that “sovereignty resides in the people.”
But Ugalde believes that “he seeks, like any populist politician, to maintain the climate of polarization and encourage the discourse that the people are on his side.”
Some opponents warn that the plebiscite could encourage him to reform the Constitution in order to be re-elected.
López Obrador said that when his term ends he will retire from politics. In Mexico there is no re-election or extension of the presidential term.
In addition to strengthening initiatives such as a reform that will reduce private participation in the electricity sector, the referendum will serve to “start the machinery towards the 2024 elections,” Anaya believes. The ruler sympathizes with the mayor of Mexico City, claudia sheinbaumto succeed.
The opposition parties BREAD, PRI Y PRDwhich make up the opposition legislative bloc, call for abstention, alleging that it is a “populist exercise” to “distract attention.”
Accused by López Obrador of supporting these theses, the INE organized the consultation with a reduced number of boxes and little publicity, citing a lack of resources.
The ruling party and its allies have a majority in Congress to pass secondary laws, but the “transformation” that López Obrador seeks requires constitutional reforms that require votes of two-thirds of the legislators, for which he is obliged to negotiate.
Source: Ambito
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