The invasion that began on February 24 caused the emigration of more than four million Ukrainians to neighboring Poland, Romania and Moldova, and the jump in grain and energy prices in the entire region.
In the case of Ukraine, the World Bank forecast is the most dire, after the International Monetary Fund projected a contraction of between 10% and 35% a month ago. Likewise, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) predicted on March 31 that the Ukrainian economy will lose 20% this year.
“This is the second major shock to hit the regional economy in two years and comes at a very precarious timeas many economies were still struggling to recover from the pandemic,” said Anna Bjerde, World Bank Vice President for Eastern Europe.
The report warns that Moldova is probably one of the countries most affected by the conflictnot only because of its geographical proximity to the theater of war, but also because its small economy is closely tied to Ukraine and Russia.
All in all, the grimmest outlook is for Ukraine, as tax revenues have shrunk, businesses have closed or are only partially operational, and trade in goods is severely affected.
Source: Ambito
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