The number of named storms forecast is above the long-term average, it explained in a statement. lian xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences. The long-term average (1951 to 2021) of named storms is 11.
Of the 17 to 21 named storms forecast, seven to nine may grow strong enough to become hurricanes (historical average is six), with three to five storms likely to become major hurricanes.
The Gulf of Mexico will see an active hurricane season, albeit more in line with historical averages, as the Xie data indicates the likelihood of three to six named storms forming in the region, of which two to five they will become hurricanes and one by two becoming a major hurricane. Historical averages for the Gulf are three named storms and one hurricane.
Xie’s methodology evaluates more than 100 years of historical data on the positions and intensity of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, as well as other variables, including weather patterns and sea surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form in each ocean basin.
Source: Ambito
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