The main survey institutes in the country, Ipsos and Ifop, indicated this Sunday that they estimate a probable abstention rate of 28% by the end of the day.
In 2017, about 25% of voters abstained in what was the lowest turnout ever recorded in a home stretch of elections French presidential since 1969.
Investors fear for a Le Pen victory
Investors are concerned about the possibility (reduced, according to the polls) that the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen could be elected given her anti-European profile and, above all, given the expectation that a hypothetical government led by her could result in further deterioration of public finances.
“The danger is not only that of a risk premium that is rising sharply, but also that of a very complicated budget situation. If markets lose confidence, rates go up and the long-term sustainability of debt becomes more than precarious.”
“In short, France’s fiscal situation can quickly become very difficult if the government does not implement fiscal consolidation after the elections,” writes Stéphane Déo, head of market strategy at French manager Ostrum AM (of Natixis IM ).
Benjamin Melman, Global CIO of Edmond the Rothchild AM, agrees.“ France’s deficit stood at 6.5 percent of GDP in 2021so there is no budgetary room for manoeuvre”.
Source: Ambito
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