The scenarios developed in it range from the end of a pandemic to an escalation. The group does not explain which way of thinking they think is the most likely – but what is needed for the preparation. “This is to be understood as version 1.0,” said the virologist Andreas Bergthaler from the Medical University of Vienna and the Research Center for Molecular Medicine (CeMM) of the Academy of Sciences (ÖAW) on Wednesday on Twitter. The past few months in particular have “clarified the dynamic development of the pandemic,” says the paper entitled “Covid-19: Scenarios for Autumn/Winter 2022 – and Beyond”, which is intended to be the start of a discussion.
“By far the greatest unknown in the preview are the epidemiological characteristics of the variants to be expected,” according to the experts, including Peter Klimek (Complexity Science Hub Vienna and Meduni Vienna), Thomas Czypionka (Institute for Advanced Studies) or the Federal Rescue Commander of the Austrian Red Cross, Gerry Foitik. Due to the high level of infectivity that the currently dominant SARS-CoV-2 variants are showing, waves of infection could occur again and again in the future.
A lot stands and falls with the further development of the virus itself, the immunity of the population, which above all concerns protection against more severe courses of the disease, the development of early detection systems for infection processes or the testing and hospital infrastructure. Last but not least, it is very much about the trust of the population in decision-makers and the communication of the goals of any measures.
The latter would be very limited anyway in the more favorable scenarios, in which either only smaller waves or winter waves occur every one to two years. In any case, the national wastewater monitoring programs should be maintained or extended, with which an overview of the infection process can be maintained, as researchers recently showed in a scientific work. In addition, an active surveillance system for Covid-19 cases among resident doctors is needed, similar to the surveillance system for influenza diseases, as well as regular, statistically valid random tests and tests in kindergartens and schools to prevent closures.
Testing and vaccination infrastructure should be monitored
However, since significantly more unfavorable variant developments are also conceivable, in which there could continue to be high numbers of infections and sometimes heavy loads on the intensive care units in the autumn and winter months, the test and vaccination infrastructure should be kept in mind. If the situation deteriorates in the foreseeable future, there will need to be options for expanding larger sample tests and options for at least vaccinating vulnerable groups again within one to two months.
The experts only address the implementation of the suspended vaccination requirement in the “worst case scenario” under the title “The pandemic continues”. Here you would be dealing with a virus type that is “similarly infectious and immune-protecting like Omicron (also: Omicron, note), but also similarly virulent as Delta”. Then there is “the possibility of a lockdown lasting several weeks”. In the “worst scenario” the pathogen presents itself again clearly changed and more dangerous. The entire arsenal of measures for containment up to a “zero Covid strategy” would probably be necessary here.
Overall, however, the experts assume that “contact restrictions will not occur until the intensive care units are (foreseeably) overloaded”. In their less favorable scenarios, they note that “the population may find it harder to convince them to comply with more drastic protective measures”. The group, which includes psychologists Barbara Schober and Christian Korunka (both from the University of Vienna), strongly emphasizes that after two years of the pandemic, large parts of the population are “in an emotional and mental state of exhaustion” caused by rising prices and further aggravated the Ukraine war.
In order to convince as many people as possible of the need to fight the pandemic, clearly and comprehensibly formulated goals are needed instead of persistent uncertainty scenarios, unspecific communication and hastily announced measures on the part of politicians. “‘Driving on sight’ is no longer accepted”, and there should no longer be a “patterned carpet of countries”. How to arrive at such a target definition must now be thought through. This also includes a reflection on the past two years and an error analysis. Now trust has to be built up again, in which competent actors communicate clear decisions in understandable language with the transparent involvement of experts and interest groups: “In addition, the impression should not be given that they are pursuing their own interests or that there are dependencies.”
Source: Nachrichten
