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Earthquakes in Europe cause an average of almost seven billion euros in damage every year and claim the lives of almost a thousand people, as the European earthquake risk model, which was created for the first time, shows. Appropriate construction methods could reduce the losses, it says. Hazard and risk models provide a basis for keeping damage within limits.
Earthquakes are forces of nature that cannot be precisely predicted or prevented. However, earthquake risk models at least show which regions are most likely to be hit by strong earthquakes and where the expected impacts can cause the greatest damage – and what measures must be taken accordingly.
The difference between risk and hazard
A research team with significant participation from the Swiss Seismological Service (SED) and ETH Zurich has now developed a new hazard model and the first earthquake risk model for Europe in a mammoth task. The project presented on Thursday was funded by the European Union as part of the Horizon 2020 research program.
According to the experts, urban areas in particular, which are also located in regions with a high risk of earthquakes, are confronted with a high risk of earthquakes. These include cities like Istanbul and izmir in Turkey, Catania and Naples in Italy, Bucharest in Romania and Athens in Greece. Also the Swiss city Basel carry an above-average earthquake risk.
The difference between seismic hazard and seismic risk is that the hazard is a natural indicator. It describes how much the ground in a given area can shake due to geology and tectonics. In contrast, the earthquake risk shows which victims and financial losses can be expected in the event of a tremor. For example, the risk of earthquakes in a desert can be high, but the risk is very small due to a lack of people and houses.
Most of the victims in Italy and Turkey
As the researchers note, Turkey, Italy, Romania and Greece alone account for almost 80 percent of the total economic damage of around seven billion euros that is caused on average by earthquakes in Europe each year. In addition, more than 75 percent of the 900 earthquake victims a year are in Italy and Turkey.
In particular, reinforced concrete skeletons constructed according to outdated seismic standards and low buildings made of unreinforced masonry contribute to the financial and human losses, according to the study. If the high-risk buildings in Italy and Turkey alone were retrofitted in accordance with the latest regulations for earthquake-resistant construction (Eurocode 8), the average annual death toll in Europe could be reduced by more than 50 percent and the annual average economic losses by at least 30 percent.
Source: Nachrichten
