Before the military parade on Victory Day over Nazi Germany, special announcements were expected from Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin in the West. “The big surprise was that there were none of the expected surprises,” said Major General Günter Bruno Hofbauer, head of basic planning at the Defense Ministry, in an interview with APA.
Putin’s parade and speech on Monday were primarily an internal symbol, a justification and declaration of war. The parade went as usual. In a certain sense, this signaled “normality”. The own side was reassured. “We’re doing our thing and things are moving forward,” was the message.
“That can be part of the strategy”
It is also quite possible that the Kremlin has not announced anything precisely because that was expected in the West. “Then you basically do something different. That can be part of the strategy to keep Ukraine in the dark about how to proceed,” said Hofbauer. Putin left all options open. Just because he didn’t declare martial law at the military parade doesn’t mean it was cancelled.
As far as the device on display is concerned, the parade was like that of previous years. You have seen modern weapon systems. “It’s a message to look inside, like, ‘Look what we’ve got’.”
It was noticed that the so-called flight meeting was cancelled. This was justified with the weather, “but I think that the weather would have allowed it”. Russia had previously announced that 77 aircraft will take part in the air show over Red Square – including the “doomsday plane”, a special construction of the Ilyushin II-80, from which Russia’s president can rule his country from the air in the event of a nuclear war.
Large participation is “remarkable”
The large participation in the veterans’ marches in numerous cities in the country is remarkable. Hofbauer analyzes that this indicates that there is not much resistance to the war and that there is still no war weariness. However, one can assume that the loss of soldiers is not known to the general Russian population. Officially, Russia has so far reported just over 1,000 dead soldiers, Ukraine speaks of 25,000 dead Russians. Both numbers are propaganda and should be treated with caution, says Hofbauer. Nothing is known about Ukraine’s losses. A ratio of 1 to 3 is usually assumed. The attacker has three times as many losses as the defender, explains the major general.
As far as the current events at the front are concerned, Hofbauer continues to see a stalemate. The Russians would have a force-space problem. On the one hand you have to hold the conquered space and at the same time advance further. “They are increasingly running out of infantry forces. Resources are being drawn from all areas of the Russian army.” Rumors that soldiers are also being withdrawn from Syria have not been confirmed.
The Ukrainians, on the other hand, keep achieving minor successes, but they are still unable to launch a major counter-offensive. As a result, Hofbauer also sees a standstill at the negotiating table. “Negotiations take place when someone is no longer able or willing. And it doesn’t look like that at the moment.” The Ukrainians want to keep fighting and so do the Russians.
Source: Nachrichten
