That is very high compared to previous years. It is “not to be expected that the number of infections will fall to the levels of summer 2020 or 2021,” emphasized the experts of the forecast consortium on Wednesday in their weekly update. However, the two-week forecast for the hospital floor still shows a clear downward trend.
In the forecast interval until next Wednesday, the stagnation in new infections is already becoming apparent. Both slight increases and slight declines are possible, shows the graph of the forecast calculator from the Vienna University of Technology, MedUni Vienna and Gesundheit Österreich GmbH (GÖG). For the last forecast day, a seven-day incidence in the range of 320 to 520 cases per 100,000 population (68 percent confidence interval) is expected. The mean value is 400, which means a constant value for this week.
“The seasonal effects, which are currently having a dampening effect, are counteracted by the progressive decrease in acquired immune protection against new or re-infection. In addition, the easing of April 16 has now fully taken effect,” the researchers justified the faltering downward trend in new infections. “Stagnation at the current level or a gradual increase in the fall in the medium term” is expected for the summer, the experts this time also looked further into the future.
On Wednesday (today) the seven-day average of new infections was 4,955 cases. In the previous year, on the same date (May 11, 2021), there were 1,167 infections per day with a decrease until the summer, an APA survey shows. Two years ago, at that time, there were only 37 infections per day with a consistently low level throughout the summer months.
According to the prognosis, the variants BA.4/BA.5, which are already dominant in South Africa, were found to a small extent in Austria. According to international observation data, these variants should have a growth advantage over variants BA.1/BA.2/BA.3. However, they have not yet been detected in sufficient numbers to be relevant to the present prognosis, it was stressed
In the past few weeks there had been a decrease in the number of cases. According to the experts, this is still reflected in a slightly decreasing hospital cover. From May 10th to May 25th, a decrease from 853 to an average of 601 infected people is expected in the normal wards. The experts estimate that the number of Covid intensive care patients should fall from 79 to 54 within the next two weeks.
Source: Nachrichten
