The consortium expects a further increase in the number of cases in the coming week. At 1.05, the effective number of reproductions is again above 1, the proportion of virus variants BA.4/5 continues to rise and is currently at 16 percent. This more infectious sub-variant already has a reproduction number of 1.44.
The Wednesday update of the model computer from the Vienna University of Technology, MedUni Vienna and Gesundheit Österreich GmbH (GÖG) expects a seven-day incidence in the range of 246 to 405 cases per 100,000 inhabitants for next Wednesday, with an average of 307 cases being assumed. The lowest incidence is expected in Styria (120-200) and the highest incidence in Vienna (400-660). The incidence is currently 220. On June 15, the experts expect an average of almost 4,000 new infections every day.
According to the experts, the renewed increase was expected for a longer time due to the declining immunity of the Austrian population – the BA.2 immunity rate is currently estimated at 61 percent – but the speed of the current trend reversal cannot be explained by this alone. In detail, the effective number of reproductions increased in the past ten days according to AGES from 0.83 (05/25/2022) to 1.05 (06/04/2022). This means that 100 infected people infect an average of 105 people with the corona virus. According to the experts, the increase can be attributed to the influence of several factors.
The proportion of virus variants BA.4/5 continues to increase. However, there were also increases in federal states with a comparatively low BA.4/5 prevalence. Due to more frequent events and increased travel around the public holidays in recent weeks, contact behavior has changed, i.e. more contacts are taking place again. The easing steps – the end of the mask requirement and school tests – are also having an effect in this direction. However, the scientists emphasized that none of the explanatory factors mentioned can be identified as the cause of this dynamic.
The growth advantage of the BA.4/5 variants compared to the previous variants is currently estimated at around 50 percent. The variant-specific reef is 1.44 (within week 20-22). This means that 100 infected people infect 144 other people. In the same period, the effective reproduction number of BA.2 increased from about 0.86 to 0.96, the experts explain.
The increase is also having an effect on the hospitals. After the previous decline, the experts are expecting an increase in Covid patients again, and a decrease in the number of seriously ill patients is also expected in intensive care units. The two-week forecast for the covering of the normal wards assumes an increase from 479 patients on Tuesday to 539 (mean value) on June 22nd. In the intensive care units, the number of beds occupied by infected people is likely to decrease from 42 to an average of 39 during this period. The coating prognosis does not distinguish between people whose hospitalization is causally attributable to Covid-19 and people who were originally hospitalized due to a different diagnosis.
Source: Nachrichten
