Macron, re-elected in April for a new five-year term, is at stake in these elections to be able to apply his liberal program, such as delaying the retirement age from 62 to 65 years, without the need to forge alliances with other parties, especially the right.
“Chaos is them,” reiterated this Friday the leftist Jean Luc melenchonwho called on voters to go vote and “make a clear decision” because “otherwise it will be a mess for months.”
More than half of the voters abstained in the first round.
The projections of the polling institutes indicate the possibility that Macron will lose his absolute majority, due to the advance in the number of seats of the left, allied in the New Popular, Ecological and Social Union (Nupes), and of the extreme right.
The Alliance Together! de Macron would achieve between 255 and 305 deputies, followed by Nupes (140 to 200), the right-wing party The Republicans and their UDI allies (50 to 80) and the National Group (RN, extreme right) of Marine You Pen (20 to 50). Most sit at 289.
What are the different scenarios that Macron faces?
Absolute or simple majority?
Maintaining the absolute majority is the privileged scenario for the 44-year-old president who, after a first term marked by social protests, the pandemic and, in the final stretch, the war in Ukraine, hopes to resume his diary reformist and more liberal.
This result would allow it to pass laws with almost no resistance in Parliament, but it risks reinforcing its image as leader “authoritarian“.
A simple majority would restore a certain role to Parliament, as it would force Macron to seek allies to carry out his measures. There are also ways to impose measures, but they involve putting the continuity of the government at risk.
The match The Republicansheir to the formations of the former presidents Jacques Chirac (1995-2007) and Nicholas Sarkozy (2007-2012), they already see themselves as arbitrators, since their votes will become “inevitable”, MEP Agnès Even told RFI.
Although these types of negotiations are common in most democracies, in the absence of a stable majority, the adoption of laws would become a headache for the ruling party in France, accustomed to pulling out the steamroller.
The most feared scenario for Macron is a great victory for Nupes – a coalition of environmentalists, communists, socialists and the radical left. Mélenchon could thus claim to be appointed prime minister to put aside the liberal’s measures and prioritize his own.
France already knew this model of “cohabitation”. In 1997, Chirac appointed as prime minister the socialist Lionel Joseph. The conservative president had previously been the prime minister between 1986 and 1988 of his socialist predecessor, Francois Mitterrand.
On the ballot next Sunday, the course taken by the second largest economy in the European Union (EU) and one of the world’s nuclear powers, in a context of war in Ukraine and rising energy and food prices.
The next electoral appointment in France will be the elections to the European Parliament in 2024, two years in which the parties will be able to settle the ongoing recomposition into three blocks -radical left, center and extreme right- before a new test before the voters.
Source: Ambito
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