No one seems able to prevent Moscow from completely subjugating Donbas, already partly under the control of pro-Russian separatists since 2014, although pockets of resistance persist.
Beyond the cities of Severodonetsk and Lisichansk, which fell one after another, there are attractive targets for Moscow.
“Russia can hope to conquer Sloviansk and Kramatorsk and their surroundings,” says Pierre Grasser, a researcher at the Sirice laboratory at the Sorbonne University in Paris. “In Sloviansk, the Russian forces hope to find a population, in any case the one that has remained, quite friendly.”
However, Russian forces have shown early in the war that they cannot venture too far. “Their ‘steamroller’ works well near their borders, their logistics centers and their air bases. But as soon as they move away, everything is more complicated”, emphasizes Pierre Razoux.
The Russians quickly conquered Kherson in the south in the first days of the war, but the situation on the Black Sea coast has not stabilized.
“The war in the south and the liberation of the Ukrainian ports from the Russian encirclement is a front of much greater strategic importance” than the Donbas, estimates Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general.
Control of the coast would give Moscow territorial continuity with Crimea, annexed in 2014, and access to Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea.
Kharkov, the country’s second largest city to the northeast, near the Russian border, remains under Ukrainian control and could also be a target for Putin, according to Pierre Razoux.
“In the event of a Ukrainian collapse and complete isolation of Kharkov, the Russians could force the Ukrainians to choose to defend that city or to put pressure south, towards Kherson.”
A battle for control of this city of 1.4 million inhabitants would be very devastating and the siege could last “a year”, he calculates.
divisions
With every military advance he makes, Putin breaks Western solidarity because Ukraine, the United States, France, the United Kingdom or Poland do not have the same perspective on the conflict.
“Russia’s goal is to continue destroying Ukrainian forces while waiting for political support for kyiv to weaken in the West,” says Colin Clarke, research director at the Soufan Center, a New York think-tank.
Ukraine relies on significant Western military aid, but it is not as fast or as large as it would like. “Ukrainians understand that the West cannot supply all the weapons they need,” recalls Alexander Grinberg.
incentives
The Russian advance should not make us forget its cost in terms of sanctions, human losses and destruction. According to analysts, Putin therefore has multiple reasons to stop the war.
At the end of June, the Kremlin slightly opened the possibility of negotiations, but in the form of an ultimatum. “Ukrainian soldiers must be ordered to lay down their arms and apply all the conditions set by Russia. Then everything will be over in one day,” said Dmitri Peskov, Putin’s spokesman. The Russian president could decree that his objectives are fulfilled and internally justify a pause in the war.
AFP Agency
Source: Ambito
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