The VMP is a roadmap for different levels of administration – ministries, states, district administrative authorities, etc. – which provides instructions for action in various pandemic situations. Even a lockdown is not excluded. The overriding principle is “Living with Covid-19”.
Four Principles
Today it is about aligning our everyday actions in all areas of life with a new normality in the long term. To this end, the resilience of the healthcare system should be strengthened, among other things. The entire care system should be designed to be crisis-proof so that the care of Covid-19 patients does not compete with standard care.
The paper formulates four principles for combating pandemics:
- Priority of protecting health and life
- Limitation of fundamental rights and freedoms as small as possible
- maintenance of health care
- Compensation of negative social effects for the greatest possible social justice
Scenario 1: Ideal case
The government assumes four possible variants: Scenario 1 is the ideal case. This provides for an end to the pandemic. While additional variants are emerging, there is no increase in transmissibility or intensity and only a minimal decrease in the protective effect of existing immunity. Previous variants (Delta) no longer occur. The effects of new variants are “harmless”. In this scenario, there may be a high number of infections in the fall, but a relatively low hospital burden.
Scenario 2: favorable case
Scenario 2 is called “favourable case” and only provides for a weakening of the pandemic. There are annual seasonal infections with “good” and “bad” years. Serious illnesses and deaths are largely limited to risk groups. In this case, a wave similar to the omicron wave would be expected in autumn.
Scenario 3: Unfavorable case
Scenario 3 includes the “worse case” where the pandemic persists and the virus continues to evolve. In this case, the high global incidence of infection, combined with the increasing immunity of the population, would lead to the unpredictable occurrence of variants with high transmissibility and severe courses in “bad years”. A worrying variant and a big wave could be expected in the coming autumn. However, serious morbidity and mortality remain concentrated in specific groups and are lower than before vaccination.
Scenario 4: Very unfavorable case
Scenario 4 envisages a “very unfavorable case” in which significantly more virulent and highly transmissible variants develop, against which the currently available vaccines are less effective. Possible causes include high global incidence, insufficient global immunization coverage, spread of Covid-19 in animal reservoirs, and recombination of genetic material between variants or with a related coronavirus.
Depending on the variant, a decreasing immunity to severe courses and deaths would then be observed, especially in risk groups. In this case, there is a very high wave of infection in autumn with an increase in serious illnesses in large parts of the population. There could be massive restrictions and even lockdowns again.
Is there a lockdown again?
According to the paper, it is not possible to predict which scenario will occur. “Rather, it is important to use scenarios to describe possible future situations.” In scenario 1 there are no restrictions, in scenario 2 one would primarily rely on wearing masks. In scenario 3, mask G access regulations would be added in certain areas and in scenario 4 there would be contact reductions, exit restrictions and even lockdowns again.
Source: Nachrichten
