These exercises around the island, the most important in China’s history, are a response to the visit made to Taiwan on Tuesday and Wednesday by the president of the United States House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi.
The maneuvers touch points of trade routes among the busiest on the planet and of crucial importance, since they connect with the world the semiconductor factories and electronic equipment from Eastern Asia and are also used for natural gas transportation.
Intended to simulate a “blockade” on Taiwan, they include “live ammunition and fire of long range artillery“, missiles that must fly over the island for the first time, according to various state media.
As a security measure, China’s Maritime Safety Administration has “prohibited” ships from entering affected areas.
Problems for maritime trade
In the first seven months of the year, almost half of the container ship of the world passed through the Taiwan Straitaccording to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“Since a large part of the world’s container fleet passes through this waterway, diversion (caused by maneuvering) will inevitably lead to disruptions in global supply chains,” said James Char, a research associate in the School of International Studies. Internationals S. Rajaratnam from Singapore.
Supply chains had already been severely affected by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
“The closure of these transport routes – even temporarily – has consequences not only for Taiwan, but also for trade flows linked to Taiwan. Japan Y South Korea“, emphasizes in a note Nick Marro, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
The same goes for air routes: in the last two days, more than 400 flights have been canceled at the main airports in fujian, the closest Chinese province to Taiwan. Taiwanese authorities have warned that drills will disrupt 18 international air routes who pass through the area.
In the Taiwan Stock Exchangethe index Taiex dedicated to air and maritime transport companies fell 1.05% on Wednesday after having lost 4.6% of its value since the beginning of the week.
Several carriers contacted by AFP said, however, that they were waiting to see the impact of China’s exercises before changing their routes, while others, such as Maerskno modifications are foreseen.
They fear cyber attacks from China
During the previous crisis in the Taiwan Strait in the 1990s, Chinese military exercises, including missile launches in the island’s waters, lasted for months.
This time, the Chinese want to “show their resolve in a way that goes beyond what they did in 1996,” says Bonnie Glasser, director of the Asia program at the American German Marshall Fund.
To its show of military force, China could add cyber attacksand has already started applying trade sanctions.
But with the Asian powerhouse’s economy already suffering from health restrictions in place since 2020, Beijing is unlikely to go for a major trade lockdown, analysts say.
“Closing all traffic within the strait for a long period of time would hurt the Chinese economy,” observes James Char.
“Given the dramatic expansion of its air and sea capabilities in recent years, China most likely has the ability to impose a Air and sea blockade of Taiwanbelieves Thomas Shugart, an expert on military innovation at the Center for the New American Security in Washington.
Source: Ambito
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